Prediction market data shows that Vivek Ramaswamy's chances of becoming Donald Trump's vice presidential running mate have surged 1,100% on the decentralized platform Polymarket over the past three days, climbing from 1% to 12%. The spike follows widespread speculation that Trump may tap the former Republican presidential contender for the VP slot, especially after Trump praised Ramaswamy as a "smart guy" and hinted he would "be with us in some form" following Ramaswamy's withdrawal from the presidential race.
Prediction Market Dynamics: Ramaswamy Climbs Past Rivals
On Polymarket, Ramaswamy's odds now trail only an unidentified male candidate and Ohio Senator J.D. Vance (15%), surpassing several contenders who had been ahead three days earlier. The total wager on this market has exceeded $49 million at press time. Meanwhile, on PredictIt, Ramaswamy's probability jumped from 2% on June 21 to 20%, making him the second-highest contender behind North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, while Vance's odds have declined to 15%.
Analysts note that the surge in Ramaswamy's odds reflects not only growing market confidence in his candidacy but also a potential strategic realignment within the Republican Party. With the first debate between Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden approaching, the choice of a running mate could significantly influence the electoral landscape. Ramaswamy, a young Indian-American entrepreneur and former biotech executive, demonstrated strong populist appeal during the GOP primaries, aligning closely with Trump's "America First" agenda.
Background: From Presidential Candidate to VP Contender
Ramaswamy launched his presidential bid as a dark horse in 2024 but withdrew in January and subsequently endorsed Trump. Since then, Trump has repeatedly praised his abilities and hinted at a role in a future administration. Observers believe that adding Ramaswamy to the ticket could help Trump attract more Asian-American and younger voters, while reinforcing his anti-“woke” stance.
However, internal GOP divisions over the VP pick remain. Traditionalist factions favor experienced politicians like South Carolina Senator Tim Scott or former National Security Advisor John Bolton, while populists lean toward Ramaswamy or Vance. The dramatic movements in prediction markets underscore the high uncertainty surrounding Trump's final decision.
As of press time, the "Trump VP" market on Polymarket continues to trade actively, with Ramaswamy at 12% and Vance at 15%. Participants are closely watching for any signals from the Trump campaign, especially regarding whether the VP candidate will appear at the upcoming debate.
What do you think about Ramaswamy's rising VP odds? Share your thoughts in the comments below.