Coinbase (COIN) shares jumped 12% on Friday, despite the crypto exchange reporting weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Analysts responded with a mix of caution on near-term pressures and optimism over the company's evolving business model.
Q4 Results: Revenue and Profit Fall Short
Net revenue came in at $1.71 billion, below the Wall Street consensus of $1.81 billion. Adjusted EBITDA of $566 million also missed the ~$653 million estimate. On a GAAP basis, Coinbase posted a net loss of $667 million, largely due to a $718 million unrealized loss on its crypto portfolio and a $395 million loss on strategic investments.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish called the quarter “a miss across the board,” citing weak transaction and subscription revenues alongside higher-than-expected operating expenses. He slashed his price target to $149 from $258, noting that trading activity, stablecoin-related interest income and crypto asset prices still drive most of Coinbase's performance.
Analysts: Mixed Views, Lower Targets
Benchmark's Mark Palmer took a more bullish long-term view. While headline metrics disappointed, he pointed to growth in derivatives, product expansion and stablecoin adoption as signs that Coinbase is becoming more “diversified and durable.” He maintained a buy rating but halved his target to $267 from $421.
Clear Street's Owen Lau highlighted pressure on consumer monetization: the retail take rate dropped from 1.43% in Q3 to 1.31% in Q4, driven by a shift to advanced trading tools and the Coinbase One subscription model. Lower per-trade revenue was partially offset by stronger engagement and cross-sell. Lau cut his target to $277 from $344, citing a prolonged crypto downturn, weak retail participation and a hawkish macro backdrop.
Still, Lau acknowledged that Coinbase's long-term positioning is strengthening. The company now has 12 business lines generating over $100 million in annualized revenue, including two above $1 billion. Its base-layer network, derivatives platform and stablecoin infrastructure show potential beyond pure trading. JPMorgan also lowered its price target after the report.
Why Shares Rallied Despite the Miss
Even as analysts trimmed targets, Coinbase shares climbed on Friday, with the market seemingly focusing on structural improvements rather than a single quarter's numbers. Management reiterated its commitment to staying adjusted EBITDA positive across cycles, backed by $14.1 billion in total available resources. The company continues to buy back stock and accumulate bitcoin using part of operating income.