Global markets this week are set to absorb the aftershocks of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023, with investors repricing a higher-for-longer interest-rate path, according to BlockBeats on Sept. 21.
Geopolitics and policy events in focus
On the geopolitical side, Trump is expected to meet Gulf states during the United Nations General Assembly and is nearing a "major decision" on whether to escalate strikes on Iran. Riyadh, the Saudi capital, has also sounded air-defense alarms again after several months, leaving the oil market caught between a geopolitical risk premium and signs of recovering physical supply.
On the policy calendar, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is leading a delegation to the United States from Sept. 19 to Sept. 23 for economic and trade consultations, putting any progress related to a China-U.S. summit under close watch. The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest-rate decision this week, and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock is also due to speak. On Tuesday, Trump is scheduled to meet Gulf countries in New York during the U.N. General Assembly and is close to making what was described as a "major decision" on Iran policy.
Key economic data due this week
In the United States, markets will be watching preliminary September manufacturing and services PMI readings, weekly ADP employment changes, initial jobless claims, August new home sales, durable goods orders, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
In Europe, several countries are set to release September PMI data, while Germany will also publish its September IFO business climate index.
Oil market signals and holiday schedules across Asia
In commodities, oil investors are expected to track API and EIA inventory data as well as the rollover of NYMEX October crude futures. China’s domestic refined oil pricing window will open for a new adjustment round on Thursday.
Holiday-related trading changes will also affect regional markets. Japan’s stock market will be affected by holidays on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. South Korea’s stock market will be closed on Thursday and Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival. Mainland China’s A-share market and Taiwan’s stock market will be closed on Friday. Hong Kong stocks will trade as usual, but southbound and northbound trading links will be shut.
On Sunday, New Zealand will enter daylight saving time, moving financial market trading hours and economic data release times one hour earlier than under standard time.