Blockchain tracking firm Whale Alert has published a new research report claiming the most accurate estimate yet of the Bitcoin stash controlled by the network's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. According to the July 2020 study, Nakamoto mined a total of 1,125,150 bitcoins up to block height 54,316, worth approximately $10.5 billion at current exchange rates. The report also notes that the unspent portion of those coins is valued at at least $10.9 billion.
The New Estimate: 1,125,150 BTC
Whale Alert's researchers revisited the long-standing mystery of Satoshi's fortune by analyzing the extranonce field embedded in coinbase transactions. This method was popularized by RSK Labs' chief scientist Sergio Demián Lerner, who introduced the "Patoshi pattern" in 2019. Lerner's original analysis estimated Nakamoto held roughly 1 million BTC. However, a 2018 study by Bitmex Research put the number much lower, at 600,000–700,000 BTC. Whale Alert claims its new methodology, which cross-references multiple data sets, eliminates more false positives and yields a precise figure of 1,125,150 BTC.
Refining the Patoshi Pattern
Whale Alert explains that between blocks 21,467 and 25,777, certain extranonce values (such as 0–9) only appeared at the start of each Patoshi chain, while the number 39 was used sporadically. Between blocks 25,811 and 54,316, the number 29 disappeared entirely from some chains. These anomalies, the researchers argue, indicate that certain mining computers or cores were defective or turned off during those periods. By excluding those blocks, the team generated a clearer picture of Nakamoto's mining activity, especially at higher block heights where network mining activity increased drastically.
Motivation: Network Defense, Not Profit
Whale Alert's report goes beyond mere coin counting. It addresses the fundamental question: why did Satoshi mine in such a distinctive pattern? The researchers conclude that Nakamoto's primary goal was to defend the young Bitcoin network from attacks, with the accumulated coins being "a mere byproduct of these efforts." The analysis suggests that the Patoshi miner was turned off in May 2010, after which Nakamoto likely ceased active mining. The report further posits that "it is unlikely that the remainder will ever be spent," though it acknowledges a bias: "Why didn't Satoshi simply burn them in this case?" The researchers also note they cannot rule out the possibility that Nakamoto ran additional mining software using the publicly released client for testing purposes.
Implications for Bitcoin's History
Whale Alert's study adds a new chapter to the ongoing debate about Satoshi's identity and intentions. With 1.125 million BTC—representing roughly 5.4% of the total supply that will ever exist—the creator remains one of the wealthiest individuals in the crypto ecosystem. Yet the findings reinforce the narrative that Satoshi's early mining was altruistic, aimed at bootstrapping network security rather than personal enrichment. As blockchain forensics continue to evolve, further insights into the Patoshi pattern may emerge, but for now, Whale Alert's estimate stands as the most detailed public analysis of Satoshi's legendary fortune.