Bitcoin's recent price drop has triggered a sharp divergence between large and small holders. According to crypto analytics firm Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC — classified as "whales and sharks" — now control 68.04% of the total supply, the lowest level in nine months. These large addresses have sold approximately 81,068 BTC in just the past eight days.
Small Wallets Accumulate at Fastest Pace in 20 Months
In contrast, the share of wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC climbed to 0.249%, marking the highest level in 20 months. Santiment notes this indicates small investors are treating the price drop as a buying opportunity and remain confident in the market. However, the firm warns that historically, when large investors sell and retail buys, it often coincides with bearish conditions. Santiment suggests whales may keep selling until broader market capitulation becomes evident.
Peter Brandt Flags $42,000 as Critical Support
Veteran trader Peter Brandt cautions that if Bitcoin's decline intensifies, the $42,000 level could emerge as a key support zone. Brandt describes the current retreat as a "banana peel" slide, suggesting the price may drift toward the lower band of a long-term rising channel. In past cycles, this area served as a base, and he sees a similar possibility now. TradingView's monthly chart indicates Bitcoin remains inside the rising channel but faces growing risk of testing the lower boundary.
Spot ETF Outflows Add to Institutional Caution
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows in recent weeks, pointing to growing caution on the institutional side. These withdrawals, combined with on-chain data, suggest selling pressure stems from both individual whales and institutional players. Overall, the landscape shows rising uncertainty. Whale sales create short-term pressure, while small investor purchases may prevent a sharp crash. But historical cycles remind us that this balance can be disrupted several times before a clear bottom forms. On-chain metrics and macroeconomic developments will be crucial in determining Bitcoin's next move.