Bitcoin was trading at $68,274 after briefly reclaiming $69,000, and the move triggered heavy liquidations across crypto derivatives. In a 24-hour period, 80,202 traders were liquidated for a combined $276 million. Both sides were hit, though short positions took the larger squeeze.
The pressure extends beyond leveraged traders. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin holders who bought within the last six months are carrying an average cost basis of about $85,400, well above the current market price. That leaves short-term holders with average unrealized losses of roughly 19.4%. Some are still holding through it. Others have already sold into weakness.
Supply Is Shifting From Short-Term Holders to Patient Buyers
While newer holders are under water, long-term holder supply has moved in the opposite direction. The report says long-term holder supply has increased by about 300,000 BTC. In practical terms, coins appear to be moving out of stressed hands and into wallets controlled by investors willing to sit through volatility for longer periods.
The article frames this as a transfer of supply rather than broad-based capitulation. Instead of reacting to the latest macro headline and exiting positions, veteran holders are absorbing coins released by weaker hands. That makes long-term participants the more visible buyers in the current phase.
Two Different Approaches, Similar Read on Market Fear
A second signal comes from analyst Joao Wedson and his 720-day Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index. The indicator is now in extreme bearish territory. In his view, that zone has historically appeared closer to the end of fear-driven stretches than to the start of a major collapse.
Wedson said this could be the final five months of fear and disinterest in Bitcoin, while also being a period of accumulation by long-time market participants. His framework differs from Darkfost’s holder-cost analysis, but both point to a market where stress is elevated and stronger hands continue to absorb supply.
Losses Are Deep, but Not Yet at a Level Seen Near Earlier Bottoms
Darkfost also noted that, historically, short-term holder losses above 25% have often lined up with early market bottoms. The current reading of 19.4% has not reached that level. The data suggests pain is already substantial, but by this measure the market is still short of the zone that has often marked more complete washouts.
The same report notes that Bitcoin remains 45% below its all-time high and is down more than 2% over the past 24 hours. In that kind of environment, leveraged positions and reactive holders are usually the first to be forced out. Whether long-term holders keep absorbing supply remains one of the clearest on-chain signals to watch.