Bitcoin moved against the broader tape while gold, silver, US equities, and Chinese stocks posted strong gains through 2025 and into early 2026. According to the source material, gold rose more than 60% in 2025, silver surged 210.9%, and the Russell 2000 gained 12.8%. Bitcoin, after briefly setting a fresh high, finished the year in the red and then dropped for six straight sessions, falling from $98,000 to below $90,000 again on January 21, 2026.
Liquidity tightening remained the main pressure point
The article argues that Bitcoin still tracks global dollar liquidity closely. The Federal Reserve cut rates in 2024 and 2025, but quantitative tightening that began in 2022 continued to drain liquidity from the system. In that reading, Bitcoin’s 2025 high was driven more by fresh demand tied to spot ETF approvals than by any real easing in global liquidity conditions. That helps explain why the asset spent more than three months stuck below $100,000 while volatility fell to unusually low levels.
The source also highlights Japan. It says the Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to 0.75% in December 2025, the highest level in nearly 30 years, hitting the yen carry trade that has long supplied capital to global risk markets. The article adds that each of the BOJ’s three rate hikes since 2024 coincided with Bitcoin declines of more than 20%. With both the Fed and the BOJ tightening, crypto was left exposed to a harsher liquidity backdrop.
Geopolitical stress pushed investors toward state-backed assets
The source links Bitcoin’s weak performance to a rise in geopolitical uncertainty as well. It describes early-2026 conditions as increasingly unstable both internationally and inside the US, arguing that this kind of uncertainty tends to push large pools of capital toward cash or assets with clearer state support rather than toward highly volatile crypto markets. The core point is simple: risk capital depends on stable expectations, and the current environment offers very little of that.
By contrast, the gains in gold and parts of the equity market are framed as policy-driven moves rather than proof of a healthier macro backdrop. Gold, in the source’s telling, has been supported by central bank demand. Data cited from the World Gold Council shows that global central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of gold on a net basis in both 2022 and 2023. In equities, the article points to US industrial policy around AI and to China’s focus on sectors tied to domestic technology and defense, where capital flows are more directly influenced by national strategy.
Bitcoin versus gold flashed another extreme reading
The article also looks at relative strength. It says Bitcoin’s RSI against gold has fallen below 30 only four times: 2015, 2018, 2022, and 2025. In the earlier episodes, Bitcoin later rebounded strongly. On that basis, the source treats the signal seen since late 2025 as more than simple underperformance and instead as a sign that markets may already be pricing in broader risks.
It also warns against chasing what has already rallied. The Russell 2000, the article notes, has climbed more than 45% from its 2025 low. A January Bank of America fund manager survey cited in the piece showed investor optimism at its highest since July 2021, cash allocations at a record low of 3.2%, and downside protection at the lowest level since January 2018. In that framework, Bitcoin’s stagnation is presented not as an isolated failure to keep up, but as an early market warning.