Santa Rally Hopes Revived: Rate Cut Signals and Policy Tailwinds
After suffering a steep correction from above $100,000 to a low of $80,000, Bitcoin has been struggling to regain momentum. Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick, who correctly called the dip below six figures, admitted he underestimated the pullback's persistence. “It may be the last time Bitcoin is EVER below 100k,” Kendrick had stated, but the cryptocurrency tumbled further. Now, a confluence of dovish Fed signals and political developments is rekindling optimism for a year-end rally above $100K.
Dovish Fed Signals Boost Risk Appetite
New York Fed President John Williams gave a strong hint on Friday that the central bank is leaning toward cutting rates at its December meeting. “I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate,” Williams said. The remark lifted both equities and Bitcoin. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December rate cut has surged to 85%. Additionally, Google’s unveiling of Gemini 3 — its most advanced AI model — calmed fears of a tech bubble and added to the risk-on mood on Wall Street.
Trump Ally Kevin Hassett Emerges as Top Fed Chair Candidate
Bloomberg reported Tuesday that Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council under President Trump, has emerged as the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chairman in May. Hassett, a vocal Trump loyalist, has openly supported lower interest rates. “I think the president thinks rates could be a lot lower, and I agree with him on that,” Hassett said in a Bloomberg interview two weeks ago. His likely nomination reinforces expectations of a sustained accommodative monetary policy.
Market Metrics: Volume Declines, Low Volatility, Falling Open Interest
As of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $86,413.29, down 2.46% over 24 hours and 7.29% over the week, according to CoinMarketCap. Intraday volatility remained low, with prices ranging between $86,131.43 and $89,206.34. Daily trading volume dropped 12.07% to $65.3 billion, while market capitalization declined to $1.73 trillion. Bitcoin dominance edged lower by 0.22% to 58.64%, signaling slightly weaker performance relative to altcoins.
Coinglass data showed Bitcoin futures open interest fell nearly 3% to $59.24 billion. Liquidations over 24 hours amounted to $99.26 million, split almost evenly between longs ($58.78 million) and shorts ($40.48 million).
FAQ: Common Questions
- Why is Bitcoin struggling to stay above $100K? Persistent macro uncertainty and weeks of selling pressure have kept BTC under six figures.
- Could a December rate cut push Bitcoin higher? Markets widely expect a cut, and cheaper money typically improves crypto risk appetite.
- Why does Kevin Hassett matter to Bitcoin investors? He’s now the leading Fed chair contender and has publicly supported lowering rates.
- Will Bitcoin hit $100K again by Christmas? Nothing is guaranteed, but rising risk-on sentiment, AI-driven market optimism, and dovish Fed signals improve the odds.
While no outcome is certain, the combination of a strong rate-cut narrative and a pro-growth Fed leadership succession is creating a fertile environment for a year-end Bitcoin rally. If risk appetite continues to improve, Santa may yet deliver a six-figure Bitcoin by Christmas.