Onchain analyst Willy Woo is publicly defending Bitcoin’s four-year cycle against a growing chorus of skeptics who believe the pattern has permanently ended. In a series of statements, Woo argued that the price data still supports the traditional rhythm, and that claims of its death are premature. He likened the situation to declaring that a heartbeat no longer exists simply because its rate fluctuates slightly during sleep.
The ‘Heartbeat’ Analogy and Cycle Supporters
Woo elaborated that external factors may cause minor deviations in timing or intensity, but the underlying pulse driven by supply-demand mechanics remains fundamentally healthy. He directly opposes industry heavyweights like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and researcher Ryan Rasmussen, who argue that the 2024–2026 period marks a permanent shift in Bitcoin’s macro reality. They believe institutional capital via spot ETFs is creating a prolonged bull market without the violent 80% crashes of previous cycles, effectively rendering the old cycle obsolete.
Similarly, experts interviewed by Bitcoin.com News emphasize that institutional capital flows and ETF demand now shape Bitcoin’s trajectory more than miner reward halvings. This shift has produced slower, steadier movements rather than sharp boom-and-bust patterns. They argue Bitcoin has outgrown its halving-driven DNA and will mirror broader financial markets with less explosive rallies but greater long-term stability.
Responding to Critics and Defending Credibility
In response to a critic questioning his track record, Woo denied that a hedge fund he oversaw collapsed in 2020. “No, that was Murad’s fund,” Woo explained. “My first fund was Crest in 2022; it’s 4 years old and is still operational today having delivered consistent returns. In fact, we run three institutional funds, including SyzCrest in partnership with Syz Banking Group.”
Two Core Drivers: Halving Supply Shock and Global Liquidity
When asked what supports the cycle beyond historical precedent, Woo pointed to two primary drivers: the internal halving supply shock and the four-year global liquidity cycle that determines risk-on/risk-off behavior. “Two impacts: internal halvening supply shock and 4-year global liquidity cycle determining risk on/off,” Woo said, noting that Bitcoin has historically led the macro market into risk-off environments. “Three prior times; up for debate is whether the fourth is happening now, which covers 100% of BTC existence.” Supporters of his view add that the current federal injection of billions into the market will eventually hit the risk curve, fueling the cyclical expansion Woo expects to continue.
To further clarify the debate, here are some frequently asked questions:
Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle really over? On-chain analyst Willy Woo says the data still supports the cycle’s rhythm.
Why do some experts call the cycle dead? Institutional ETF flows and macro forces are seen as stronger drivers than halvings.
What does Woo cite as proof of the cycle? He points to halving supply shocks and global liquidity’s four-year pulse.
How does this debate affect investors worldwide? Markets may shift from boom-and-bust cycles to steadier, macro-linked growth.