Wintermute OTC Desk said in a market update published on Sept. 14 that Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative last week, with $463 million in net outflows. It was the first weekly net outflow since June. Over the same stretch, BTC fell 4.4%, making it the weakest performer among the assets it tracks, while altcoins as a group rose 1.0%.
The firm said the combination of negative ETF flows and sharply stronger expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike warrants a shift in its short-term crypto stance, moving from constructive to neutral.
BTC ETF demand fades after three weeks of buying
Wintermute said spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $463 million in net outflows for the week. ARK and Grayscale accounted for about $371 million of that total, while BlackRock flows were broadly flat.
Ether ETFs, by contrast, recorded $197 million in net inflows for the week. But the bulk of that came from a single-day inflow of $216.4 million on Friday after the CPI release. From Tuesday through Thursday, ETH ETF flows were negative.
According to Wintermute, the ETF buying that helped lift BTC from $63,000 to $82,000 over the past three weeks was absent this week. BTC then pulled back by about $3,500.
Robinhood Chain revenue cools sharply
Wintermute also flagged a clear slowdown in on-chain revenue on Robinhood Chain. Revenue fell from a peak of $6 million on Sept. 4 to $485,000 on Sunday, a weekly decline of 69%.
Over the same period, DEX trading volume was broadly unchanged at $14 billion, while total value locked rose to $930 million. Trading volume on the PONS launchpad fell 17%, which Wintermute linked to fading momentum in the token creation surge seen in early September.
At the same time, Uniswap volume on Robinhood Chain rose 28%. Wintermute said that increase mainly came from fewer but larger tokenized stock trades.
The desk added that revenue per unit of trading volume on Robinhood Chain dropped 85% over nine days. It also noted that the gas subsidy that helped drive September trading activity is due to expire at the end of this month. In Wintermute’s view, the on-chain revenue tied to the relevant token has already fallen 69% before the subsidy ends, leaving it exposed to further pressure.
From constructive to neutral ahead of the Fed
On the broader market outlook, Wintermute said its stance has shifted from constructive to neutral as BTC ETF flows have turned negative again.
One of the drivers behind the earlier crypto rally, the firm said, was that capital leaving richly valued equities had been moving into BTC through ETFs. That flow reversed this week. At the same time, BTC fell even more than the stock assets that had previously been seen as sources of outflows.
Wintermute said this does not mean the earlier thesis has fully broken down. It does, however, weaken the case for keeping a bullish positioning in place ahead of a Fed rate hike. With ETF buying missing, BTC is now trading in a $76,000 to $82,000 range, and marginal buyers are not obvious, according to the desk.
Two events in focus this week
Wintermute said two events stand out this week.
The first is a procedural vote in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday to open debate on the CLARITY Act. The bill needs 60 votes to advance, while Republicans currently hold 53 seats. Wintermute said a successful procedural vote could trigger upside beyond what the market expects. If it fails, the market may already have priced in the impact.
The second is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday. Markets expect a 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75% to 4.00% range, which would mark the first rate increase in three years.
Wintermute said the rate hike itself is already priced in. What may not be fully priced, however, is any hawkish guidance from Fed Chair Warsh on the policy path ahead, especially signals pointing to consecutive rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027. That, the firm said, could become a factor that pushes the crypto market lower.