Wintermute sees the latest move as a relief rally
According to a July 7 market analysis cited by BlockBeats, Wintermute said the latest rebound across crypto markets was driven by a broader recovery in global risk assets after U.S. nonfarm payroll data came in well below market expectations and comments from Warsh were interpreted as dovish. In that backdrop, Bitcoin and Ether have both significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq over the recent period.
Wintermute said Bitcoin’s advance appears to have a stronger foundation than Ether’s. The firm highlighted three main drivers behind BTC’s move higher: continued accumulation by whales, options flows rotating toward bullish call positioning, and improving on-chain indicators. It also noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs have ended their prior stretch of net outflows, offering an additional boost to market sentiment.
Macro easing and whale accumulation supported BTC
On the macro side, cooling conditions in the U.S. labor market have led investors to further scale back expectations for additional rate hikes this year. Warsh reiterated the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target at the Sintra forum, but did not deliver a more hawkish signal. Markets interpreted that stance as relatively more accommodative, which Wintermute sees as one of the key reasons behind the latest recovery in risk assets.
In crypto specifically, Wintermute said on-chain data shows whale wallets accumulated more than 270,000 BTC near the 200-week moving average. At the same time, options market flows shifted away from defensive positioning and into call options with strike prices in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, suggesting a pickup in short-term risk appetite and a more constructive bias among traders.
Ether’s rebound is more narrative-driven, while fundamentals remain under pressure
Wintermute drew a distinction between Bitcoin and Ether in the current rally. It said Ether’s rise has been driven more by institutional narrative, including the formal launch of Ethereum Institutional and continued progress in institutional tokenization infrastructure. Those themes have helped support ETH sentiment even as Bitcoin has led on the basis of stronger on-chain and derivatives signals.
At the same time, the firm warned that Ethereum’s fundamentals still face pressure. It pointed to about 20% layoffs at the Ethereum Foundation, a roughly 40% budget cut, and earlier outflows from ETH ETFs as signs that the asset’s underlying backdrop remains mixed. In other words, while the institutional story around Ethereum has strengthened, the supporting capital flows and internal ecosystem metrics have not fully turned decisively positive.
Overall, Wintermute said the current move is better characterized as a relief rebound rather than the start of a new long-term bull market. Improving macro conditions, easing tensions in the Middle East, continued institutional positioning around Ethereum, and seasonally thinner summer liquidity have all contributed to the market’s recovery. However, from a flow perspective, spot Bitcoin ETFs are still down by about $2.73 billion in cumulative net flows year to date. Until ETF flows continue improving and that change becomes a durable trend, Wintermute believes the market should treat the latest rally as sentiment repair rather than a structural reversal.