Ron Hammond, the policy chief at crypto trading firm Wintermute, expressed strong skepticism regarding the passage of the U.S. Clarity Act in 2026, estimating its likelihood at just 30%. The legislation aims to comprehensively regulate the crypto market structure and define the roles of the SEC and CFTC — a milestone long awaited by the industry.
Banking Industry Pushback
The primary obstacle, according to Hammond, comes from the banking sector. The core dispute revolves around whether stablecoins should be allowed to offer yields. Traditional banks argue that yield-bearing stablecoins would drain deposits and destabilize the financial system. A proposed “yield agreement” intended as a compromise to bridge this gap failed just two weeks ago, further dimming the bill's near-term prospects. Hammond noted that without resolving this conflict, the Clarity Act cannot secure the bipartisan support needed for passage.
Political Landscape and Industry Hopes
The broader political environment remains uncertain. Recent developments show Senator Elizabeth Warren criticizing the OCC’s approval of crypto trust charters, and another senator proposing an amendment to ban crypto as legal tender. Meanwhile, newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (reportedly holding Bitcoin assets) adds another layer of complexity. Industry advocates continue to push for regulatory clarity, but Hammond believes 2026 may be too early for a breakthrough.
Market Reaction and Outlook
The market showed little immediate reaction, as regulatory uncertainty is already priced in. Notably, STABLE tokens gained 10.27%, reflecting ongoing demand for stablecoin exposure. Wintermute’s insight often reflects institutional sentiment. If the Clarity Act stalls, the next realistic window for comprehensive crypto regulation in the U.S. could shift to 2027 or beyond.