Ron Hammond, head of policy at Wintermute, has expressed skepticism about the legislative path for the US crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act. He estimates that the proposal has only a 30% chance of being passed in 2026, underscoring the political and industry hurdles still facing digital asset regulation in Washington.
Bank opposition remains a major obstacle
According to Hammond, one of the most significant barriers to the bill is pushback from the banking sector. A central point of contention is whether stablecoins should be allowed to offer yield. That debate carries broader implications for competition between crypto-native financial products and traditional banking services.
Hammond also noted that a proposed compromise on yield, introduced two weeks ago, has already failed. The collapse of that arrangement suggests lawmakers and stakeholders are still far from reaching consensus on one of the most sensitive issues in the bill.
Regulatory clarity is still the core objective
The Clarity Act is designed to establish a clearer regulatory structure for the US crypto market, particularly by defining the respective roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). For the crypto industry, that division of authority has long been seen as a critical issue affecting compliance, product development, and institutional participation.
Still, Hammond’s outlook indicates that demand for clearer rules does not automatically translate into legislative success. With banking opposition, unresolved stablecoin provisions, and broader political negotiations still in play, the path toward a unified US crypto framework remains uncertain.