Crypto market maker Wintermute released a new macro report, pinpointing the Federal Reserve's sharp hawkish turn and the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal as two black swans hitting risk assets. The report notes that the crypto market front-ran the stock market's pending selloff over the weekend, triggering roughly $600 million in long liquidations. With leverage reset, a weak PCE reading on Friday could spark a short-term bounce for Bitcoin (BTC).
Fed's Hawkish Turn: Dot Plot Flips to Hike, December Odds Jump to 77%
Wintermute highlights that while the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% (in line with expectations), the overall tone turned sharply hawkish. The post-meeting statement was slashed from 341 words to 130, and the "easing bias" was completely removed. More strikingly, the dot plot flipped from signaling cuts to signaling hikes, with the 2026 median raised from 3.4% to 3.8%. Among 18 participants, 17 see inflation risks skewed to the upside, and the implied probability of a December hike surged from ~24% a month ago to ~77%. This shows the Fed's inflation concerns go far beyond energy prices, even with oil falling.
Iran Deal Collapse: Crypto Market 'Priced in' the Shock, $600M Longs Wiped
On the geopolitical front, the U.S.-Iran deal scheduled for signing on June 19 in Switzerland — which included reopening the Strait of Hormuz — collapsed after Israel's attack on southern Lebanon prompted Iran to walk away. Qatar is trying to salvage talks into late June, but the earlier "de-escalation trade" has already failed. Wintermute notes that the U.S. stock market was closed for Juneteenth and couldn't immediately absorb the news, but the 24/7 crypto market took the hit first. Bitcoin peaked at nearly $67,000 (a seven-day high) before plunging back to the $60,000 range; Ethereum (ETH) lost the $2,000 level, becoming the weakest major altcoin. The weekend slide triggered ~$600 million in long liquidations, effectively pricing in the negative sentiment ahead of Wall Street's open.
Strategy Buys the Dip: 1,587 BTC Acquired at ~$63K
Addressing a rumor, the report clarifies that fears of a large entity (Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy) selling 32 BTC were just noise. In reality, the firm bought 1,587 Bitcoin between June 8–14 at an average price of ~$63,000 (worth ~$100 million). While rising funding costs have slowed its pace, the long-term accumulation strategy remains intact.
Wintermute concludes that the market is now in an extremely defensive posture: leverage has been reset and sentiment is low. As long as BTC holds the $60K support, a weak U.S. PCE print on Friday or progress in Qatar-mediated talks could trigger a relief rally. However, a sustained bull reversal still requires structural capital inflows, especially from ETFs and stablecoins.