Market maker Wintermute argues that Bitcoin’s recent weakness reflects a broader shift in capital allocation rather than a one-off market shock. In its latest market analysis, the firm said AI-related assets have been absorbing available liquidity for months, reducing room for allocations to other risk assets and helping explain crypto’s relative underperformance.
U.S. selling and ETF outflows remain central
According to Wintermute, Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000 last Monday, wiping out all gains made since Trump’s election. The firm said spot-flow data points to persistent structural pressure. One key signal is that the Coinbase premium has remained in discount territory since last December, suggesting ongoing selling pressure from U.S. participants. Wintermute also said its internal OTC desk data showed U.S. counterparties were the main sellers during the week, with continuous ETF redemptions amplifying that trend.
Thin spot volumes leave leverage in control
Wintermute described last week’s move as a “surrender-style” clearing event, where volatility surged and buying support emerged around $60,000. But with spot trading still relatively subdued, leverage has become the dominant force behind short-term price swings. The firm added that without a recovery in open interest, it will be difficult for the market to build sustained follow-through on either the bullish or bearish side.
That leaves Bitcoin in what Wintermute sees as a high-volatility, choppy price-discovery environment rather than a clean directional trend. In this phase, price action is increasingly driven by institutional flows through ETFs and derivatives, while some retail attention appears to be shifting toward AI-linked themes.
Recovery needs real spot demand
For a “true structural recovery,” Wintermute said several conditions must improve together: spot demand needs to return, the Coinbase premium should turn positive, ETF flows need to stabilize or reverse, and basis conditions should become more stable. Until then, the firm believes crypto assets may struggle to regain leadership against competing risk sectors.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $68,700, down less than 1% over 24 hours, with roughly $46 billion in daily volume and a market value near $1.37 trillion. Ethereum’s market capitalization stood around $242 billion, with about $28.6 billion in 24-hour turnover. Among AI-linked crypto names, FET traded near $0.16, RENDER around $1.31, AKT close to $0.32, and AGIX near $0.07. Wintermute’s conclusion was blunt: until AI trading cools, crypto’s relative performance may remain under pressure.