World Cup drives June trading surge in prediction markets
Prediction market volumes climbed sharply in June, with Kalshi recording nearly $9.4 billion in monthly volume, according to DefiLlama data cited by ChainCatcher. That marked a new all-time high and represented a major increase from roughly $5.3 billion in May. Over the same period, Polymarket International also expanded, rising from about $3.5 billion to around $4.3 billion. The report said the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which kicked off on June 11 and was expanded to 48 teams for the first time, became the single biggest catalyst for June trading activity across prediction markets.
Activity intensified further during the knockout rounds. As of publication, the Canada vs. Morocco Round of 16 market had generated more than $48 million in trading volume on Kalshi, while the same matchup surpassed $26.8 million on Polymarket. CNBC previously reported that World Cup-related contracts had emerged as the dominant trading theme for prediction market participants during the month.
Regulatory pressure persists in the U.S. and Europe
Even as volumes reached new highs, prediction markets continued to face legal and regulatory disputes in the United States. The report noted that more than a dozen states have already taken action against Kalshi and Polymarket. In response, CFTC Chair Selig accused those states of carrying out unlawful enforcement actions against exchanges that are regulated at the federal level.
In Europe, the European Securities and Markets Authority, or ESMA, warned companies last Friday that many event contracts may already be captured by existing restrictions on binary options. The latest warning underscores that, despite rapid growth in trading demand, prediction markets are still confronting tightening compliance scrutiny across major jurisdictions.