WSJ questions the calculation behind Strategy’s mNAV
The Wall Street Journal reported that Strategy’s internally created mNAV metric has a systematic flaw. The ratio is intended to show how the company’s valuation compares with the value of its Bitcoin holdings, but the report said the company calculates enterprise value using the face value of debt and preferred stock instead of their market value. That approach, according to the article, inflates the numerator and makes the premium appear larger than it really is.
Using June 26 as an example, Strategy’s official disclosure showed an mNAV of 0.99. However, if market values were used instead, the corrected figure would have been only 0.89. The same issue appeared in more recent data: as of last Thursday, the company reported 1.09, while the adjusted number was estimated at around 1.04. The gap suggests that the headline metric may overstate the true valuation premium investors are assigning to the company relative to its Bitcoin position.
Falling share price is pressuring the financing model
The report added that Strategy’s stock has dropped 75% over the past year, while mNAV briefly fell below 1 last month. That threshold matters because Strategy’s long-running model depends on using equity that trades at a premium to underlying Bitcoin value, then raising capital and buying more Bitcoin. Once that premium weakens or disappears, the feedback loop that supported continued accumulation becomes much harder to sustain.
WSJ said this dynamic means the company’s “sell premium stock to buy Bitcoin” strategy is no longer operating as smoothly as before. If mNAV remains below 1 for a prolonged period, Strategy could face tighter constraints in raising fresh capital through the same playbook, especially as equity investors become less willing to pay a large premium over the company’s crypto holdings.
Board has already authorized potential Bitcoin sales
Earlier, Strategy’s board authorized the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin. According to the report, the proceeds could be used for share repurchases and for servicing interest payments as well as preferred stock dividends. That authorization is notable because it suggests the company has already prepared a mechanism to monetize part of its reserve if financing conditions deteriorate further.
The article also said Strategy estimates its current cash balance of $2.55 billion can fund interest and dividend obligations for about 17 months. That provides some near-term flexibility, but not a permanent solution if market conditions remain unfavorable or the company loses access to efficient equity financing.
Potential market impact extends beyond the company
WSJ noted that Strategy holds Bitcoin equal to roughly 4% of global supply. Because of that scale, any large disposal of coins would likely matter not only for the company’s treasury strategy but also for the broader market. The report argued that significant sales from Strategy could add further pressure to Bitcoin prices.
In that context, the article’s broader conclusion is that if the corrected mNAV stays under 1, Strategy may ultimately have to rely on its Bitcoin reserve rather than external capital markets to bridge funding needs. That would mark a meaningful shift for a company long viewed as the most aggressive corporate buyer of Bitcoin and could reshape how investors assess the durability of its balance-sheet-driven accumulation model.