XRP is currently changing hands at $1.04. Analyst Egrag Crypto points out on the monthly chart that the asset opened July below the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) and has yet to reclaim it. In his view, the $1.65 level acts as a major macro barrier. Historically, XRP bottoms have formed near the 88-period SMA, often followed by broad upward moves. Egrag stresses that as long as XRP stays below $1.65, it remains in macro consolidation; a decisive breakout above that level would sharply alter the picture.
Monthly SMA Cap and Three Scenarios
Egrag's forecast map lays out three scenarios. The highest-probability scenario (55%) calls for a retest of the 88-period SMA. A 30% chance is assigned to quickly reclaiming the 50-period SMA and avoiding a deeper pullback. The remaining 15% sees XRP dipping below the 88-period SMA, stretching the macro recovery timeline. The analyst notes that previous cycles saw strong expansion moves after lows formed around the 88-period average, and market participants are watching closely to see if this pattern repeats.
Breakout Targets: $7.50 and $42
Should XRP break above $1.65, Egrag expects a structural shift in the chart pattern. The first major expansion target is $7.50, with $42 cited as a longer-term, historically derived level. Until the price decisively clears the 50-period SMA, however, the analyst maintains a cautious stance.
Derivatives: Volume and Open Interest Decline
Market appetite in derivatives remains subdued. According to CoinGlass data, XRP futures trading volume fell 2.14% to $1.70 billion. Open interest dropped 2.73% to $2.27 billion. Open interest refers to the total size of futures contracts that have not yet been closed, and the decline indicates participants are reducing positions. The funding rate for open positions sits at 0.0027%, a periodic payment mechanism in perpetual markets that balances long and short positions. The extremely low rate shows balanced positioning with little directional betting.
Claims of Japan's XRP Holdings: Over $60 Billion?
X platform analyst Xrp Herald claims that Japan's total XRP holdings now exceed $60 billion. The post highlights Japan as one of the strongest XRP markets, attributing it to institutional ties with SBI Holdings, robust retail demand, and growing blockchain activity. SBI Holdings, a major Japanese financial group, is described as one of the largest corporate XRP holders globally, with deep involvement in the Ripple ecosystem and well-known for its ongoing initiatives connected to Ripple.