XRP has posted its largest spike in on-chain realized losses since November 2022. Data from Santiment shows that investors recently sold coins below their cost basis, locking in roughly $908 million in losses. That kind of reading usually points to panic-driven selling. It reflects a market where fear is forcing holders out of positions, often in a compressed period.
Past XRP cycles offer a useful comparison. In October 2022, realized losses climbed to about $1.93 billion. Over the following eight months, XRP went on to gain 114%. That does not guarantee the same outcome this time, but it does show a pattern: once weaker holders exit, the market can face less sell pressure, leaving room for a recovery to build.
Price has bounced back toward the $1.50 to $1.60 area
After the latest loss event, XRP recovered toward the $1.50–$1.60 range. The source material notes that when realized profit-and-loss data is compared with price action, large loss spikes have often come before extended periods of gains for XRP. The current move is still a rebound rather than confirmed trend reversal, yet it shows that buyers have started to absorb part of the heavy selling.
Derivatives data adds more detail to the shift in sentiment. According to Coinglass, XRP traded slightly below $2.00 from late December into early January. In the first week of January, the token pushed above $2.30, while perpetual futures funding rates stayed positive, a sign that traders were leaning bullish. That setup weakened in the middle and later part of January, when price slipped back toward $2.00 and funding turned more volatile, showing uncertainty in positioning.
Funding rates still show caution
The sharpest move came in early February. XRP fell to around $1.20–$1.30, and funding rates turned strongly negative, pointing to heavier short exposure and a bearish bias in the perpetual futures market. Price then rebounded hard, climbing back to roughly $1.50–$1.60. Even so, funding remained negative. That gap matters: spot price has recovered from the low, but derivatives traders are still hesitant to chase the move.
For now, the picture around XRP is split. On-chain data shows capitulation-scale selling, price has bounced from the drop, and funding rates suggest traders have not fully regained confidence. The source stops short of calling a final bottom, but the latest loss spike clearly puts XRP back into a setup that has preceded major recoveries before.