XRP has slipped into a loss-driven selling phase. At the time of publication, the token was trading at $1.44, down about 1% over 24 hours, roughly 10% over the past week, 30% in the last month, and more than 40% over the past year. Since reaching $3.65 in July 2025, XRP has lost close to 60% of its value.
Trading activity has increased even as price weakens. Spot volume rose 22% in the last 24 hours to $3.45 billion, pointing to active repositioning in the market. Derivatives data looked less constructive. CoinGlass figures showed XRP futures volume up 12% to $5.66 billion, while open interest edged down 0.17% to $2.50 billion, a sign that traders may be reducing exposure instead of adding new leverage.
On-chain profitability has turned negative
Glassnode said in an X post on Feb. 9 that XRP had fallen below the aggregate cost basis of its holders, pushing the market into what it called a “stop-loss phase.” The key metric was the Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR. Its 7-day EMA dropped from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96, marking the first sustained move below 1.0 since 2022.
When SOPR stays under 1, coins are being sold at a loss on average. Glassnode said realized losses are now exceeding realized gains, showing that on-chain profitability has flipped negative. The firm compared the setup to the stretch from September 2021 to May 2022, when XRP spent months consolidating after SOPR moved below 1.0.
Recent selling is not being led by whales
CryptoQuant added another signal. Analyst PelinayPA said whale-to-exchange flows remain near historical lows even with XRP trading around $1.42 to $1.45. That suggests the current decline is not being driven by large holders rushing coins onto exchanges.
Instead, the pressure appears to be coming mainly from smaller holders. During the rally into the July 2025 high, whale selling increased sharply near the top. That pattern has not shown up in the current move. According to the report, larger players seem to be holding back distribution until prices rise. In past cases, that type of setup has often coincided with sideways trading or a mild drift lower, followed by short upward spikes that attract whale selling.
Technical structure still favors more downside
On the daily chart, XRP continues to print lower highs, keeping the broader bearish structure intact. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages have both started to slope downward and are acting as overhead resistance. After several failed attempts to hold above the Bollinger mid-band, price has been pushed toward the lower band, suggesting volatility is settling to the downside rather than forming a stable range.
Momentum has not improved much. The daily RSI remains below neutral, and there is still no confirmed bullish divergence. Volume behavior points in the same direction: there has been no clear capitulation spike, but selling has been building on down days, which fits a steady stop-loss process more than panic liquidation.
The $1.45 to $1.50 area, once seen as support, is now being retested with a noticeably weaker buyer response. Attempts to reclaim prior breakdown levels have been rejected quickly, indicating strong supply overhead. If selling pressure stays elevated, XRP could slide toward the $1.35 to $1.30 zone, where buyers stepped in during late 2024. A daily close below $1.30 would increase the chance of a deeper move toward $1.20.