Blockchain analytics firm Santiment revealed on April 13 that social metrics for XRP have reached extreme bearish levels, marking the third-highest fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) reading in the past two years. The platform's data suggests that such sentiment extremes have historically preceded short-term price recoveries, presenting a potential buy signal amid widespread pessimism.
FUD at Near-Historic Peaks Creates Rebound Setup
Santiment's chart displays a positive-to-negative sentiment ratio of approximately 1.02 bullish comments per 1.00 bearish comment. This reading closely mirrors the 0.96 ratio seen in February 2025, which was followed by a short-term XRP price recovery. Another comparable level occurred in October 2025 at 1.01, though that instance did not trigger a sustained bounce. The firm noted: "Historically, when bullish comments get replaced by this level of bearish ones, the probability of a relief rally climbs significantly higher." The dataset identifies distinct sentiment zones: a 'FOMO zone' where aggressive buying occurs during strong optimism, and a 'FUD zone' where pessimism dominates. Current readings hover near the lower boundary of the FUD zone, reflecting deepening retail capitulation.
Nine-Month Downtrend Drives Retail Surrender
XRP has declined approximately 63% over the past nine months, aligning with a steady rise in negative commentary volume. Santiment emphasized: "With retail finally turning their backs on XRP after a -63% price drop over the past 9 months, this kind of signal can help you capitalize on their bearishness if you’re willing to be patient a bit longer. Prices move the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectations." The sharp drop has pushed many retail traders to reduce exposure, creating an environment where extreme fear often marks the exhaustion of selling pressure.
Institutional Accumulation Contradicts Retail Sentiment
While retail sentiment sours, institutional and whale activity tell a different story. On April 10, spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $9.09 million, the highest single-day inflow since February. Additionally, the number of wallets holding at least one million XRP has continued to increase, indicating that large holders are accumulating during periods of retail pessimism. This divergence suggests that deeper-pocketed participants view the current price level as an attractive entry point, reinforcing the potential for a reversal.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism for a Relief Rally
Santiment's analysis underscores that extreme bearish sentiment alone does not guarantee a bounce—it merely increases the probability. The current setup shares similarities with previous FUD peaks that preceded short-term rallies, but confirmation from broader market conditions remains essential. If institutional inflows persist and retail selling exhausts, XRP could experience a sharp upward move of 15%–25% in the near term. However, traders should remain cautious of false breakouts and wait for volume confirmation. The data suggests that patience may reward those who fade the prevailing bearish narrative.