XRP is facing a renewed risk of slipping below $1, with two bearish chart patterns now lining up on short-term timeframes. Analysts cited in the report say a head-and-shoulders formation has been developing since June 5. By Thursday, the right shoulder had formed, leaving XRP exposed to an initial move toward neckline support near $1.09. If that neckline breaks decisively, the pattern points to a downside target near $0.99.
Head-and-shoulders pattern puts $0.99 in view
Based on the article’s calculations, $0.99 stands as the first major bearish target for June, roughly 10% below current levels. There is also a clear invalidation level. If XRP recaptures the right-shoulder peak around $1.12 and moves above the 20-period EMA on the four-hour chart, the setup could lose force in the near term. In that case, price may push toward the $1.15 area, where the 50-period EMA sits, representing about 4.5% upside from current levels.
Bear flag and RSI keep attention on $1.10
A second pattern highlighted on the four-hour chart is a bear flag. After a sharp drop, XRP has been trading inside an ascending channel, a structure often interpreted as a pause before the prior downtrend resumes. By Thursday, XRP was testing the lower trendline near $1.10. Analysts said a firm four-hour close below that level would confirm the breakdown and could expose XRP to a technical target around $0.94, about 15% below current price levels.
Momentum readings remain soft. The report notes that the RSI is at 43, still below the neutral 50 line, a sign that buyer strength is limited. A rebound above $1.12 would weaken the bearish structure. If XRP also breaks through the key $1.15 resistance tied to the 50-period moving average, selling pressure could ease for a time and price may shift toward the upper trendline in the $1.18 to $1.20 zone.
MVRV bands point to $0.96 as another downside area
On-chain data adds another layer of downside risk. The article says MVRV price bands, which compare the current market price with the average cost at which coins last moved on-chain, continue to show room on the downside. Analysts noted that during major XRP declines in 2018, 2020, and 2022, price either touched or briefly moved below the lower green band. If that historical pattern repeats, the next major area to watch would be near $0.96, roughly 13% under current levels.
For now, the report places the short-term focus on a narrow set of levels. Support sits at $1.09 and $1.10, while any recovery would need to reclaim $1.12 and then $1.15. On the downside, the levels highlighted across technical and on-chain analysis are $0.99, $0.96, and $0.94.