XRP is trading near $1.1218, and the market is weighing two major technical developments at once: the token has slipped below its closely watched 200-week simple moving average, while the monthly RSI has moved back into a deeply oversold reset zone that has appeared only four times over the past 13 years. The article notes that similar monthly RSI readings were seen before the 2017 rally, during the 2020 reset, in the 2022 pressure phase, and now again in 2026.
Analyst EGRAG Crypto said he is still following a long-term XRP framework built around market structure, liquidity patterns, price direction, and broader macro conditions. In that view, short-term volatility matters less than major price zones. The levels highlighted in his charts are $0.7770, $1.1600, and $1.6500, which are being treated as key markers for judging whether the latest correction is fading or still has room to run.
Break Below the 200-Week Average Shifts Attention to Recovery Timing
One of the more important changes in recent weeks is XRP’s move below the 200-week average. Historically, that threshold has been used as a long-term trend reference, and prior breaks were not quickly reversed. The source says XRP has at times traded sideways for extended stretches after falling under that level before eventually recovering. The most recent comparable period began in 2022 and was not broken until late 2024.
That has pushed some analysts to focus less on how deep the decline becomes and more on how long any recovery may take. Support areas mentioned in the report include $0.97, $0.83, and $0.69. Some technical analysts are also tracking the $0.77 region as a Fibonacci extension target.
Monthly RSI Signal Is Rare, but It Does Not Promise an Immediate Rebound
Market watchers are careful not to overstate the monthly RSI reading. The report says this type of signal does not automatically lead to a sharp upside move; in past cycles, it tended to appear when the market was tired and momentum had weakened. For that reason, the more practical test is whether XRP can defend major support zones and later reclaim overhead resistance.
Daily indicators remain mixed. TradingView data cited in the article shows XRP up 2.65% on the day, but the broader technical summary still leans neutral, with 14 sell, 7 neutral, and 5 buy signals. On the oscillator side, RSI is at 25.42, CCI at -137.62, and Stochastic RSI Fast at 9.04, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. MACD, however, remains negative at -0.07004, indicating the downtrend has not clearly ended.
Moving Averages Still Show Pressure Across Timeframes
The moving-average picture remains heavy. XRP is trading below most short- and long-term averages, including the 10-day EMA at $1.194, the 10-day SMA at $1.218, the 20-day EMA at $1.257, and the 50-day SMA at $1.362. On a longer timeframe, the 200-day EMA and SMA stand at $1.622 and $1.610.
Support is currently identified between $1.10 and $1.21, followed by $1.097 and $0.811. Resistance is placed at $1.499, $1.667, and $1.952. Based on the figures in the source material, XRP is flashing a rare oversold condition, but its price structure is still trading under clear technical pressure.