XRP’s monthly RSI has dropped below 43, a level seen only four times across roughly 13 years of trading history. Cryptollica said the reading points to more than a standard oversold condition. In its view, earlier instances of the same setup appeared during major cycle resets in XRP and were followed by sharp repricing before a new trend took shape.
Year-to-date loss nears 44%
The latest decline came during a broader correction across the crypto market. CoinCodex data shows XRP has fallen about 43.9% since the start of the year. At the time referenced in the report, the token was trading at $1.22. That retreat has wiped out much of the momentum built during earlier rallies, and sentiment has turned noticeably more cautious.
Cryptollica’s argument has drawn attention because the signal is rare. The platform said every prior drop of the monthly RSI below 43 was followed by an intense repricing phase, with the market later settling into a fresh trend. That does not settle the short-term direction, but it puts XRP back on traders’ screens.
EMA resistance still defines the chart
Another technical view remains less constructive. Market analyst ChartNerd said XRP’s broader structure is still under downward pressure. According to the analyst, after the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages crossed on the five-day chart in November 2025, XRP made two separate recovery attempts and both failed.
The first rebound stalled near the 50-day EMA around $2.40 in January 2026. That move established a lower high before price fell back toward $1.11. The second attempt came in May and lost strength near the 20-day EMA around $1.54, reinforcing the bearish structure already in place.
Rare reset signal meets a fragile market structure
XRP is now showing two conflicting signals at once. One is a historically rare RSI reset on the monthly chart. The other is a price structure still marked by lower highs and weak follow-through. ChartNerd’s view is that caution remains the dominant stance unless XRP can reclaim key moving averages and break the current lower-high pattern.
That leaves traders watching a narrow question: whether the recent setup marks the early stage of a long-term reversal or only a pause inside a deeper correction. The chart, for now, has not resolved that tension.