According to the latest data from on-chain intelligence firm Santiment, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for XRP has fallen to its lowest level since the collapse of the FTX exchange in November 2022. As of April 7, 2026, the average annualized return of active wallets on the XRP Ledger has plummeted to -41%, signaling a deeply undervalued zone. Santiment notes that historically, such extreme negative territory has often preceded significant price recoveries—for instance, after the FTX crash, XRP surged 63% in just 4.5 months, reclaiming the psychological $2 threshold.
MVRV at Multi-Year Low: Market Sentiment Hits Rock Bottom
The MVRV ratio measures the deviation between a token's current market price and the average purchase cost of all holders. A negative MVRV indicates that the majority of investors are underwater. Santiment data reveals that XRP's MVRV has plunged deep into negative territory, matching the 'panic bottom' seen during the FTX event. The firm emphasizes, “Since cryptocurrencies are zero-sum trading games, significantly negative average returns imply there is much lower-than-average risk in buying or adding positions.” Such 'blood in the streets' conditions often provide classic 'buy-the-capitulation' opportunities for contrarian investors.
Despite a promising start to 2026, XRP ended the first quarter with a more than 25% decline, retreating from its early-year highs. In early February, XRP hit a year-to-date low of $1.22, subsequently finding solid support around the $1.30 level, which has become a key defense line for bulls. However, recent on-chain data points to weakening demand: the net XRP position on centralized exchanges dropped sharply from 117 million XRP at the end of March to 57 million XRP on April 5, a 51% decline, suggesting a temporary exhaustion of buying power.
Historical Patterns Hint at Reversal: Can XRP Reclaim $2?
Santiment posted on X (formerly Twitter) that extremely negative MVRV values often precede major trend reversals. Looking back at November 2022, a similar negative MVRV was followed by a 63% rally from around $0.35 to $0.57 within 4.5 months. If history repeats, XRP could bounce from its current $1.30 zone and challenge the $2 target once again. However, analysts caution that sentiment shifts take time, and the near-term weakness in exchange flows may cap upward momentum.
XRP's weakness also reflects the broader crypto market slump. Despite Ripple's ongoing legal and business progress, macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory uncertainty continue to pressure risk assets. Santiment's interpretation paints a 'squat before jump' scenario, but a recovery is not instantaneous. Investors should monitor whether MVRV deepens further and whether exchange net inflows turn positive—key signs of a trend reversal.
On-Chain Data Reveals Supply-Demand Imbalance
Beyond MVRV, Santiment tracked the change in active wallet addresses. Over the past year, the number of active addresses on the XRP Ledger has dropped an average of 41%, reflecting a significant contraction in retail participation. This metric, combined with MVRV, confirms that the market is in a typical 'despair trough.' Historical cases show that when retail panic exits and long-term holders endure paper losses, savvy money often begins to accumulate. However, the slowdown in exchange net outflows suggests that selling pressure has not fully subsided, and a short-term bottom still needs confirmation.
Overall, XRP's macro fundamentals have not deteriorated, but price action has fully priced in pessimistic expectations. Santiment's model suggests that current valuations have entered a historically extreme undervalued zone, offering medium-term rebound potential. If market conditions improve and buyers re-enter, a return to $2 is not out of reach.