According to the latest on-chain data from analytics firm Santiment, the average return of active XRP wallets over the past year has fallen to a staggering -41%, dragging the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to its lowest level since the FTX crash in November 2022. This metric is often seen as a sign of extreme bearish sentiment, but historical patterns suggest such deeply undervalued zones are frequently followed by strong rebounds.
MVRV Hits Multi-Year Low, Signaling 'Blood in the Streets'
Santiment reports that XRP's MVRV has entered what it calls an 'undervalued zone,' meaning the majority of holders are now underwater. Specifically, the annualized average return for active wallets is -41%, the worst reading since the FTX debacle. Analysts note that after the FTX capitulation in November 2022, XRP surged 63% within 4.5 months. If history repeats, XRP could rally from its current level around $1.30 and retest the psychological $2 mark.
Despite a bullish start to 2026, XRP ended the first quarter with a total decline of over 25%. After hitting a yearly low of $1.22 in early February, XRP has consistently defended the $1.30 level, establishing it as a key support for bulls.
Exchange Netflows Shrink, Short-Term Demand Weakens
However, short-term on-chain indicators paint a more cautious picture. Santiment data shows that the net position change on centralized exchanges has dropped sharply, from 117 million XRP in late March to just 57 million XRP by April 5, indicating a temporary exhaustion of buying demand. This slowdown may limit the immediate upside potential.
Nevertheless, Santiment reinforced on X that since cryptocurrencies are a zero-sum game, a significantly negative average return means 'the risk of buying or adding positions is well below average.' They added that when the market enters a 'blood in the streets' phase, the most fearful investors have already exited, making further declines statistically less likely than a recovery rally.
Opportunities for Contrarian Investors
On the fundamental side, Ripple continues to report strong performance, but selling pressure has outweighed positive news. Technical analysis shows XRP is oversold on weekly charts, with RSI at low levels. While near-term trends remain bearish, on-chain data suggests the current price could be an excellent opportunity for medium-to-long-term accumulation. If XRP holds the critical support at $1.20, a rebound to $2 or higher is plausible within months.
At press time, XRP trades at $1.34, down 2.3% in 24 hours. Investors should monitor whether MVRV deteriorates further and whether exchange inflows pick up. If buying demand returns, the $2 target could be achieved in the near future.