New data from crypto analytics firm Santiment reveals that XRP's active wallet addresses have suffered an average return of -41%, pushing the asset's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to its lowest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022. Historically, such extreme undervaluation zones have preceded major trend reversals, leading analysts to speculate about a potential recovery toward the $2 psychological level.
MVRV Hits Multi-Year Low, History Hints at Reversal
Santiment reports that active wallets on the XRP Ledger over the past year are seeing average returns plunge to -41%. This decline has pushed the MVRV ratio into deep undervaluation territory, suggesting the majority of holders are currently at a loss. The metric represents the most severe divergence between market value and realized value since the FTX crash in November 2022. According to Santiment, long-term investors may find this encouraging; after the 2022 capitulation event, XRP recorded a 63% rally within 4.5 months. If historical patterns hold, the digital asset could rebound and potentially reclaim the $2 threshold, last held in January.
Despite an optimistic start to 2026, XRP has faced a steady pullback, closing the first quarter with an overall decline of over 25%. However, after hitting a yearly low of $1.22 in early February, XRP has consistently defended the $1.30 level, establishing it as a key support for bulls.
On-chain indicators present a more cautious outlook. For instance, the net position change on exchanges saw a sharp drop from 117 million XRP at the end of March to 57 million XRP on April 5, suggesting temporary exhaustion of buyer demand on centralized exchanges.
‘Blood in the Streets’ May Present Buying Opportunity
In a post on X, Santiment reinforced that extremely negative MVRV levels often precede major trend reversals. “Since cryptocurrencies are zero-sum trading games, significantly negative average returns imply there is much lower than average risk in purchasing or adding to positions,” Santiment noted. The firm highlights that when the market enters “blood in the streets” territory, the risk of further declines is statistically lower than the potential for a relief rally, as the most volatile investors have already capitulated.
While the immediate trend appears bearish due to waning exchange demand, the underlying on-chain data suggests XRP is deeply oversold. For contrarian investors, the combination of a 41% average loss and a multi-year MVRV low offers a compelling “buy the capitulation” thesis.
At press time, XRP is trading around $1.32, leaving roughly 51% upside to the $2 target. Market participants are closely watching these indicators to gauge whether the bottom is in.