According to the latest data from crypto market intelligence firm Santiment, the average returns of active wallets on the XRP Ledger have crashed to -41%, pushing the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to its lowest level since the collapse of FTX in November 2022. Historical patterns suggest such deep undervaluation zones often precede significant price recoveries.
MVRV Plunges to Multi-Year Lows, Signaling Potential Reversal
Santiment reports that active wallets on the XRP Ledger over the past year are seeing average returns decline to -41%. This decline has driven the MVRV ratio into a deeply undervalued zone, indicating that the majority of holders are currently in the red. The last time the indicator reached such levels was after the FTX implosion — after which XRP surged 63% in just 4.5 months.
“Since cryptocurrencies are zero-sum trading games, significantly negative average returns imply that there is a much lower-than-average risk in buying or adding positions,” Santiment noted on X. The firm emphasized that when the market enters “blood in the streets” territory, the statistical risk of further declines is often lower than the potential for a relief rally, as the most impatient investors have already capitulated.
XRP Holds $1.30, But Exchange Demand Weakens
Despite an optimistic start to 2026, XRP faced a steady retracement, closing the first quarter with an overall decline of more than 25%. After hitting a year-to-date low of $1.22 in early February, XRP has consistently defended the $1.30 mark, establishing it as a primary support line for bulls. However, on-chain indicators paint a more cautious picture: net exchange position dropped sharply from 117 million XRP at the end of March to 57 million XRP on April 5, suggesting a temporary exhaustion of buyer demand on centralized exchanges.
Nevertheless, Santiment data suggests XRP is deeply oversold. If historical patterns hold, the digital asset could recover and potentially reclaim the psychological $2 threshold — a level last held in January.
Divergence Between Market Sentiment and On-Chain Signals
XRP currently faces conflicting signals: short-term bearish pressure with declining exchange demand, versus long-term bullish indicators from extreme MVRV readings. Santiment emphasized that “extremely negative MVRV levels historically almost always precede major trend reversals.” Analysts caution that while on-chain data shows signs of bottoming, the market needs additional catalysts for a substantial rally. Ripple’s fundamental outlook remains solid, but macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments will be key determinants of whether XRP can surpass the $2 mark.