XRP is approaching a short-term decision point as price compresses just below the $1.65 to $1.70 resistance range. The tightening structure has drawn close attention from traders watching for a sharp move. According to EGRAG Crypto, the token is forming an ascending triangle, a pattern where buyers keep stepping in at higher levels while sellers defend a flat ceiling.
Higher lows keep building pressure under resistance
The structure matters because XRP has been printing a series of higher lows instead of drifting sideways without support. That shows demand has remained active. Based on that setup, EGRAG Crypto estimates a 65% probability that XRP breaks above the current resistance zone. Liquidity is also building above that area, which could speed up price action if the barrier is cleared.
False breakout risk remains on the table
The bullish case is not guaranteed. The analyst also assigned a 35% probability to rejection, meaning XRP could briefly move above resistance and then reverse hard. In that outcome, the market would be dealing with a fakeout rather than a clean breakout. The report notes that if a strong catalyst does not emerge, upside momentum may fail to hold. A delay involving the Clarity Act was cited as one factor that could weaken bullish sentiment and trigger a liquidity sweep.
Closing above $1.85-$2.00 would matter more than one breakout
EGRAG Crypto said a move through Zone 1 alone would not be enough to confirm a durable rally. XRP would need to produce consistent closes above the $1.85 to $2.00 range to strengthen the case for continuation. That area stands out as a key threshold. If price cannot hold there, the first breakout may lose force quickly.
Push above $2.60 would need wider market support
For Zone 2, placed above $2.60, the analyst said broader support would be needed. The factors mentioned include institutional inflows, added exposure through ETF-style products, and stable Bitcoin conditions. Without those inputs, XRP may find it difficult to sustain momentum after an initial breakout. The chart also shows price interacting with several key moving averages, which are still acting as dynamic resistance. Buyers are present, but confirmation has not arrived yet.