XRP dropped to $1.009 on June 26, marking a new yearly low. Buying through spot ETFs continues to remove some circulating supply, but weak demand and a sharp decline in speculative trading have capped any meaningful price recovery. Despite its association with Ripple and cross-border payment use cases, XRP has failed to attract substantial rebound momentum in recent months.
Futures market signals subdued activity
Futures data paints a similar picture: open interest has stabilized around 400 million XRP, while the open interest turnover ratio remains at 0.71, reflecting low speculative activity. Market analyst Arab Chain advises watching for sudden surges in open interest and turnover ratio, warning they often precede sharp price swings.
Technical trend stays bearish
Daily charts show XRP has remained in a downtrend that began in July 2025. The breach below the April 2025 low of $1.61 reinforced the bearish pattern, followed by months of range-bound trading. A sharp sell-off in late May shattered that fragile stability. A brief recovery to $1.2935 in mid-June approached the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1.2985, only to see renewed selling that dragged the price back toward $1.05. If selling pressure persists, the next support levels are $0.975 and $0.854. The possibility of falling below the psychological $1 mark has become a key topic among traders.
The $1 level becomes the immediate focal point
Historically, XRP has attracted buyers in the $0.90 to $1 range, making this area a crucial support zone. Resistance at $1.13 has flipped from former support and is now closely watched. A breakout above $1.13 could signal near-term strength. Trader Celal Kucuker argues XRP must hold the current support, noting that a move above $10 within 12 months is theoretically possible but would come with much higher volatility. Positive divergence on the daily chart over the past week suggests selling pressure may be weakening. Technical analyst ChartNerd points out that previous bear cycles lasted 14 to 37 months with declines of 85% to 96%, while the current downturn has run 11 months with a 72% pullback — hinting that a bottoming process could begin soon. In the near term, all eyes are on the $1 threshold. Holding above it could lead to another test of $1.13 resistance; a clear break below support might open a target zone between $0.87 and $0.90.