XRP (XRP) is close to confirming a breakout from a multi-week descending trendline that could potentially kickstart an uptrend in the coming sessions.
Drop Exceeds 40%; Funding Rates and Liquidations Amplify Decline
XRP has fallen nearly 17% since mid-February and roughly 43% from its year-to-date high of $2.39. The downturn mirrors Bitcoin's recent slide amid subdued risk appetite driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. Softening funding rates and forced unwinding of leveraged long positions accelerated the drop beyond what spot selling alone would cause. Lack of institutional inflows since the start of 2026 also dampened demand: U.S. spot XRP ETFs drew in only $88 million over the past three months, far below the $1.16 billion recorded from November to December 2025, per SoSoValue data.
Daily Chart: Trendline Breakout Imminent, Murrey Math Lines Set Targets
On the daily chart, the descending trendline that has acted as dynamic resistance since early January is being tested. At press time, XRP trades at $1.36, near the trendline's upper boundary. The $1.36 level also marks the bottom of the trading range in Murrey Math lines — a key support for potential reversals. A breakout above this psychological level could trigger a sharp rally to $1.75 (top of Murrey trading range) or even the strong pivot reverse point at $1.95. Conversely, failure could extend the downtrend toward $1.17, where bulls may attempt to re-establish a floor.
Risk Variable: Middle East Situation Caps Risk Appetite
Although weekend volatility has eased over the past 48 hours, Middle East tensions remain a key factor weighing on risk appetite. Traders are likely to stay cautious until clearer signs of de-escalation emerge. The technical setup and fundamental uncertainty leave XRP's near-term direction dependent on whether the trendline resistance breaks decisively.