XRP is trading near $1.44 after a sharp move to $1.51 sparked fresh debate over the token’s direction. The rebound drew strong buying, but the move lost speed soon after, leaving traders split between a still-constructive higher-timeframe setup and softer short-term momentum.
Macro structure stays in place above the 2-month 21 EMA
Analyst Egrag Crypto said XRP’s broader structure remains intact as long as price holds above the 2-month 21 EMA. In that view, the secular trendline is still valid, and the chart continues to print higher lows across the larger structure. That is the core bullish argument.
Egrag Crypto also said reclaiming $2.40 and $3.36 would offer stronger macro confirmation. At the same time, the analyst estimated there is a 40% to 50% chance that XRP has already set its cycle bottom.
The outlook was not one-sided. The same analyst said there is still a 50% to 55% chance of another capitulation phase before expansion resumes, while adding that a move into the $7 to $13 range remains possible if breakout conditions improve.
May 10 breakout cooled after heavy buying pushed XRP higher
The latest rally started on May 10, when XRP climbed from the $1.43 to $1.44 area to $1.51. Trading volume was unusually strong during that move, pointing to aggressive participation as price briefly entered overbought territory.
That strength faded near the local highs. Sellers pushed XRP back toward the $1.45 support zone as profit-taking picked up, and the token later settled around $1.44 with a slight daily decline.
Resistance builds near $1.46 to $1.51 while support sits at $1.44 and below
ChartNerd focused on the shorter-term picture and said XRP moved above resistance only briefly before slipping back into consolidation. The analyst noted that the daily stochastic RSI has already entered overbought territory, while volume remains relatively weak. Short-term momentum is no longer as strong as it was during the initial breakout.
Other indicators show the same shift. XRP’s RSI, which had climbed above 75 during the rally, is now near 49.70. The MACD histogram has also turned negative, signaling weaker bullish momentum in the near term. On the upside, resistance stands near $1.46, then $1.48, followed by the recent high around $1.51.
On the downside, immediate support remains near $1.44, with stronger support around $1.42 and $1.40. Even after the pullback, the chart still shows buyers defending the higher-low structure, making those levels the main focus for traders watching stability.