XRP is back at a long-term technical level that traders closely watched in an earlier cycle. Analyst JD said the token’s latest interaction with the 21-month exponential moving average resembles a setup that previously appeared before a sharp upside expansion.
In that earlier cycle, XRP touched the 21-month EMA before momentum accelerated, and price later moved from $0.28 to $3.37. This time, XRP is still trading above the same moving average and above a rising macro trendline, keeping price positioned over long-term structural support. The move has not turned explosive, but the support zone remains intact.
Monthly chart is showing a familiar structure
XRP is also trading below a major resistance area that has capped upside for years. The report notes that this kind of behavior is often associated with supply being absorbed over time. At the same time, monthly candles continue to print higher lows above support, which JD flagged as a key part of the historical comparison.
JD described the 21-month EMA as an important trend boundary. Holding above it supports the case for continuation. Losing it has led to extended weakness in prior periods, including one drawdown of more than 95%.
Confirmation still depends on monthly closes above resistance
Recent trading has looked more like stabilization than a straight breakout. JD warned against treating the repeated pattern as proof of an immediate vertical move, since compressed markets often take time before resolving in one direction.
His main focus is confirmation. In his view, the stronger signal would come if XRP consolidates and then posts sustained monthly closes above the long-standing resistance zone. Until that happens, upside expectations remain conditional. For now, XRP is sitting at a key structural point where long-term support is holding while resistance still defines the next test.