XRP traded above $1.10 as derivatives activity picked up alongside the price move. CoinGlass data showed open interest in perpetual XRP contracts rising from 2.09 billion to 2.14 billion XRP by Tuesday, a sign that fresh capital or new positions entered the market, though open interest alone does not confirm direction.
The rally was backed by a sharp increase in turnover. During the early morning session, trading volume climbed to 43.51 million XRP, roughly 88% above the 24-hour average. In the next hour, another 14.17 million XRP changed hands as the token moved from $1.0958 to $1.1052. Selling pressure started to build after that level was reached.
Retail optimism returns while forecasts remain split
Retail sentiment has shown signs of improvement. Analyst Celal Küçüker said XRP had gained more than 500% in a single month two years ago and argued that a move to $7 by year-end should not be dismissed too early. That view reflects one side of the market, not a consensus.
Technically, XRP is still trading below major exponential moving averages. The 50-day EMA stands at $1.17, the 100-day at $1.28, and the 200-day at $1.49. Those levels suggest that any short-term advance may run into resistance overhead. Some analysts, using Elliott Wave analysis, point to a possible move toward the $1.19 to $1.23 range. Others warn that a break below $1.09 could open the way for a deeper support test.
ETF outflows and geopolitical stress keep institutions cautious
Institutional positioning appears far less enthusiastic. The report said spot XRP ETF outflows totaled about $7 billion on Wednesday, with weak fund flows persisting through the week. That creates a clear contrast with rising futures open interest: trading interest is improving, but institutional money has not followed the same path.
Pressure on risk appetite has also come from outside crypto. The article linked broader market caution to rising tensions in the Middle East. It said US forces struck 90 targets along the Iranian coastline on Wednesday, after which Iran’s Revolutionary Guard targeted US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar’s prime minister later called for a diplomatic solution.
$1.10 becomes the near-term level to watch
During Thursday’s session, XRP formed higher lows and drew buying interest near $1.0880 on pullbacks. In the near term, $1.10 is being watched as a key support area, while resistance is seen at $1.1065, $1.11, and $1.13. Momentum indicators remain mixed, with the RSI around 45 and the MACD histogram showing a slight positive divergence.