Blockchain analytics firm Santiment flagged on April 13 that fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) surrounding XRP has surged to its third-highest level in the past two years, potentially signaling a contrarian buy setup. The firm’s social sentiment data reveals a positive-to-negative comment ratio of approximately 1.02 — meaning for every 100 bearish remarks, only 102 bullish ones are recorded. Historically, such extreme readings have often preceded short-term price recoveries.
Historical Patterns: February and October 2025 Precedents
Santiment compared two past instances: in February 2025, the ratio dropped to 0.96, after which XRP experienced a brief price bounce. In October 2025, the ratio reached 1.01, leading to a period of consolidation rather than a sustained rally, but still marking a local bottom. “When bullish comments are replaced by this level of bearish ones, the probability of a relief rally climbs significantly higher,” the firm stated. The current reading sits near the lower boundary of the ‘FUD zone’, opposite the ‘FOMO zone’ where extreme optimism fuels aggressive buying.
Retail Capitulation vs. Institutional Accumulation
XRP has declined approximately 63% over the past nine months, driving retail investors to capitulate. Santiment noted: “With retail finally turning their backs on $XRP after a -63% price drop over the past 9 months, this kind of signal can help you capitalize on their bearishness if you’re willing to be patient a bit longer.” However, institutions are moving in the opposite direction. On April 10, spot XRP ETFs recorded $9.09 million in net inflows, the highest single-day figure since February. Meanwhile, wallets holding at least one million XRP (so-called “millionaire wallets”) have increased, indicating large holders are accumulating during the retail panic.
Divergence and Broader Market Context
Santiment’s core thesis is that “prices move the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectations.” The extreme FUD level, combined with rising institutional inflows, creates a classic divergence that often precedes reversals. Yet the firm cautions that confirmation from broader market conditions remains essential. Separately, Evernorth’s amended SEC filing for its SPAC merger details XRP-based financing, deepening the asset’s role in crypto market structure. While this news adds a fundamental layer, its immediate impact on sentiment is still unfolding.
In summary, XRP sits at a crossroads of extreme pessimism and smart money accumulation. Historical data suggests such emotional extremes can mark near-term bottoms, but traders should remain vigilant about volatility and await further confirmation from price action and macro factors.