XRP is displaying a classic tug-of-war in its technical setup. Analyst ChartNerd, in an early-May update, noted that while short-term structure has improved, pressure from higher timeframes remains a key concern. On the weekly chart, RSI has bounced from historical cycle lows—levels that previously preceded rebounds—and the MACD has formed a golden cross, reinforcing short-term bullish momentum. Price also holds near the 200-week EMA, and the monthly 50 EMA remains intact, supporting a potential base formation.
Higher Timeframe Risks: Three-Month MACD Shows Exhaustion
Despite weekly strength, ChartNerd flagged caution on three-month charts. The three-month RSI sits at 54, above prior bearish lows near 47, while the three-month MACD remains elevated but signals exhaustion, raising the risk of a death cross. The three-month 10 EMA now acts as overhead resistance, limiting upside continuation under the current structure. ChartNerd said any near-term rally could be a counter-trend move, likely forming a lower high before a deeper correction later in the year—an observation based on historical price behavior, not a bearish stance.
Price Action: From Panic Drop to Consolidation
XRP declined from above $2.50 in November to around $1.80 by December, with repeated lower highs and the MA50 below the MA200. A mid-January bounce failed near the MA200, confirming resistance. In early February, a sharp sell-off pushed price close to $1.20 on high volume, indicating panic selling or forced liquidations. The asset then consolidated between $1.25 and $1.50 through March. From April into early May, XRP began forming higher lows near $1.38–$1.41. Price now trades slightly above both the MA50 and MA200, and these moving averages have started flattening, hinting at a possible trend shift.
On-Chain Data and Key Levels
Total holders increased from roughly 7.2 million to 7.82 million. Key resistance stands between $1.50 and $1.60, while support remains at $1.30 and $1.20. Whether XRP can sustain above $1.50 in the near term will be a critical test of bullish momentum.