XRP continued its decline on January 20, trading at $1.891 as of 5:13 p.m. ET, failing to sustain intraday bounces and hovering near the lower end of its recent hourly range. The token has formed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the sharp breakdown in the prior session, reflecting persistent risk aversion and decisively bearish momentum.
Technical Indicators Signal Sustained Bearish Pressure
On a short-term chart, XRP remains under pressure after the abrupt selloff reset near-term levels. Price briefly attempted to stabilize in the mid-$1.90s but rolled over after failing to reclaim declining moving averages. Candles continue probing toward the $1.88 area with shallow rebounds. Volume spiked during the initial breakdown and has since moderated as price grinds lower—a pattern consistent with sustained distribution rather than exhaustion-driven reversal.
Key technical indicators align with the bearish view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 29, deeply oversold, indicating persistent downside momentum. The MACD remains negative, with the MACD line below the signal line and the histogram slightly below zero, confirming ongoing bearish momentum. XRP trades below both the 50-period and 200-period simple moving averages, reinforcing resistance in the 1.96-2.05 zone. Bollinger Bands have expanded after the sharp selloff, with price tracking near the lower band around the high-1.87s, signaling elevated volatility and continued pressure.
Macro and Geopolitical Shocks Fuel Risk Aversion
Broader macro developments added further strain. Overnight, the Trump administration released screenshots of private diplomatic communications with French President Emmanuel Macron and the NATO Secretary General, publicly exposing disagreements on Arctic policy. This was accompanied by AI-generated maps depicting Canada and Greenland as U.S. territories, along with a firm declaration of “no going back.” The escalation included a new threat of 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne, framed as retaliation for France’s refusal to join a proposed “Board of Peace” for Gaza—injecting fresh geopolitical and trade uncertainty.
These events coincided with the reopening of U.S. markets after a long holiday weekend, triggering a delayed reaction to the 10% baseline tariffs announced Saturday. The overlap of renewed trade tensions and geopolitical escalation has driven a broad risk-off move, with capital rotating out of speculative digital assets like XRP into traditional safe havens. This shift reinforced downside pressure as liquidity favored lower-volatility assets.
Outlook: Can Support at $1.87-1.88 Hold?
With price hugging the lower end of the range and technical indicators leaning bearish, XRP remains under near-term pressure unless selling momentum eases and price stabilizes away from the lower Bollinger Band. Key support lies near the $1.87-1.88 zone, while resistance is layered between $1.96 and $2.05. Moderating volume post-selloff and bearish MACD alignment suggest sustained distribution rather than a confirmed reversal. Until macro headwinds subside, any bounce in XRP is likely to be shallow and short-lived.