Debate around an XRP “supply shock” is picking up after CryptoComLearn highlighted an argument from Edo Farina: the real issue may not be today’s market price, but how much XRP could end up locked away from open trading if large holders begin treating it as a reserve asset. Under that view, owning 100 XRP may eventually look less trivial than it does now.
The article places XRP at about $1.37 during a broader market cooldown. Farina’s case is not centered on short-term price action. It is built on supply structure, and on the idea that institutional balances, payment rails, and retail wallet reserves could gradually absorb a meaningful share of available tokens.
Bank reserve assumptions sit at the center of the thesis
The starting point is cross-border banking infrastructure. Farina argues that banks currently keep large sums idle in nostro accounts, prefunded pools used to settle international payments. If XRP were adopted as a bridge asset in place of that system, financial institutions could need to hold sizeable XRP reserves.
His rough model assumes that around 150 central banks each hold 100 million XRP, which would account for 15 billion tokens. Add about 25,000 private banks holding 1 million XRP each, and another 25 billion XRP would be tied up. Combined, that comes to roughly 40 billion XRP, close to half of the network’s stated 100 billion total supply.
The piece also makes clear that those figures are open to challenge. The claim is not presented as a settled forecast. The point is narrower: if reserve demand from institutions becomes material, the amount of XRP freely circulating in the market could shrink sharply.
CBDC and wallet demand are added to the equation
The theory extends beyond banks. The article includes possible adoption through central bank digital currencies, stablecoins, and user wallets built on the XRP Ledger, arguing that basic operating balances could create another layer of persistent demand.
One example in the piece assumes 800 million users holding just 5 XRP each to activate wallets or maintain reserve balances. That alone would remove 4 billion XRP from active circulation. The emphasis here is not only on speculative accumulation, but on tokens being held because they are needed for network use.
Another component is XRP Ledger’s transaction burn mechanism. Each transaction destroys a very small amount of XRP. The immediate effect is minor, but the article argues that long periods of large-scale activity could slowly reduce total supply over time.
The case depends on adoption happening at scale
The bullish interpretation is straightforward: if institutions hold reserves, retail users keep base balances, and on-chain activity continues to burn supply, the pool of XRP available for trading gets thinner. The opposing view is equally simple. This scenario assumes broad institutional adoption, coordinated accumulation, and heavy consumer use, while banks and governments often move slowly and crypto adoption rarely unfolds in a clean pattern.
That is where the discussion lands. Instead of asking whether XRP can hit a specific price target, the article shifts attention to how much of the supply would actually remain liquid if major holders keep it off the market for long periods. For now, it remains a theory built on possible structural demand rather than a confirmed market outcome.