XRP climbed from around $1.03 to an intraday high near $1.08 on July 2, then stalled once more near the same resistance area that turned buyers back several times in late June. The latest bounce followed Ripple’s announcement of an institutional-focused XRPL Lending Protocol and a monthly escrow release that did not flood the market with as much supply as some traders feared.
Ripple released 300 million XRP into circulation while keeping 700 million XRP locked. That helped ease immediate dilution concerns and brought buyers back. On-chain data also improved during the recovery. Daily active addresses on XRP Ledger rose more than 72%, and new wallet creation reached its highest level in roughly three months, pointing to renewed accumulation after June weakness.
On-chain strength improved, but major averages still cap price
Exchange balances kept falling as coins moved into self-custody, reducing liquid supply during the rally. The report also noted that July has historically ranked among XRP’s stronger months, which encouraged some systematic traders to rebuild long exposure after the second quarter ended. Bitcoin holding above $60,000 added support by allowing capital to rotate back into large-cap altcoins.
The broader chart structure remains restrictive. On the daily timeframe, XRP is still trading below all major moving averages, with the 20-day near $1.11, the 50-day around $1.21, the 100-day close to $1.30, and the 200-day near $1.49. A descending trendline drawn from lower highs since May continues to block each rebound attempt, so the larger trend has not turned yet.
The $1.07 to $1.09 band is the immediate test
Shorter-term momentum looks better on the 4-hour chart. XRP has reclaimed recent consolidation lows and is once again probing the $1.075 to $1.08 area. The Supertrend indicator remains bearish near $1.09, making that level the first confirmation point for bulls. If price clears it, the next upside levels discussed in the report are $1.11 and then $1.15.
Aroon readings are split by timeframe. The daily setup still favors sellers, while the 4-hour reading shifted strongly toward buyers, with Aroon Up reaching 100%. That shows stronger short-term momentum, though not a full reversal in the broader structure. Derivatives data adds weight to the current zone as well. CoinGlass liquidation data shows a large concentration of short liquidations between $1.08 and $1.10, which means a clean move through that band could force leveraged shorts to cover.
Failure here would put $1.03 and $1.00 back in focus
If XRP gets rejected again, downside levels are already defined. Large long liquidation pools sit around $1.03 and $1.02, making them the first support area to watch. Below that, the market could revisit the $1.00 psychological level, with the next demand zone mentioned near $0.98. Analyst ChartNerd said in a July 2 post that relief from the $1.00 low was possible, but the overall trend still remained down for now.
The report also noted that XRP remains about 70% below its peak near $3.66 from July 2025. At the policy level, the delay of the U.S. CLARITY Act removed a catalyst that many had been watching. That leaves the $1.07 to $1.09 area as a critical line: a break above it would strengthen the recovery case, while another rejection would keep sellers in control of the broader setup.