XRP holders are sitting on heavy unrealized losses as the token continues to trade well below its 2025 highs. According to on-chain data cited from Glassnode, roughly 36.8 billion XRP are currently held below their acquisition cost, amounting to about $50.8 billion in unrealized losses. The figures reflect the damage from XRP’s sharp retreat after it climbed above $2.80 in 2025. With the token now changing hands near $1.34, a large share of investors remain underwater.
Analysts See a Familiar Cycle Reset
Market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO argues that XRP may still be moving through a typical late-cycle reset rather than a unique breakdown. In his view, major XRP cycles often end with a painful capitulation phase before the next expansion begins. He distinguishes between two types of resets: price capitulation, where a steep decline flushes out leverage and weak hands, and time capitulation, where prolonged sideways action gradually wears down investor sentiment.
Past XRP cycles offer some support for that framework. During the 2017–2018 cycle, XRP reportedly fell around 67% and then spent roughly 210 days in consolidation. In the 2021 cycle, the drawdown was deeper at about 77%, but the cleanup phase was shorter as liquidity was removed more quickly through an aggressive selloff. Based on those precedents, some analysts believe the current market may still be in a broader reset process.
Key Levels: $0.85, $6.8 and $20
Structurally, EGRAG CRYPTO said XRP could still retrace toward the origin of its previous expansion move near $0.85. In crypto markets, such zones are often watched as potential reset or retest areas before a larger trend attempts to rebuild.
Using Fibonacci-based projections, he also flagged two long-term levels traders are monitoring. The $6.8 area is being watched as a possible capitulation-related price target, while $20 is framed as a broader expansion objective if a future bullish cycle fully develops. Even so, those longer-term scenarios would likely depend on XRP first completing its current correction and consolidation phase.
Short-Term Structure Still Looks Weak
In the near term, XRP remains inside a descending parallel channel that started after the drop from above $2.80, leaving the technical structure tilted to the downside. Momentum signals also remain soft. RSI is still in the low-40s, suggesting limited buying pressure, while MACD continues to weaken, pointing to fading bullish momentum.
For traders, $1.30 is the immediate support level to watch. A break below it could expose the $1.20 area, where buyers had previously stepped in. On the upside, $1.50 stands as the first resistance, followed by a stronger barrier near $1.90. Until XRP breaks out of this downward structure, the market may remain stuck in consolidation as participants wait for a clearer directional move.