XRP hovered between $1.10 and $1.16 on June 10, last changing hands near $1.11. The token shed about 4% in 24 hours and more than 10% over the past seven days. It now trades roughly 70% below its July 2025 record of $3.65. While momentum indicators flag oversold territory, on-chain data reveals holders continue to absorb losses and XRP Ledger activity has cooled significantly.
$1.10 Support Under Pressure
The daily chart retains a bearish structure after XRP printed a series of lower highs and lower lows. Price remains below the Supertrend level at $1.2638, making the $1.26–$1.33 band the first major resistance zone. The relative strength index (RSI) reads 29.03, beneath its 31.48 moving average. A reading below 30 puts XRP in oversold territory, but the RSI must recover above 30 and then 50 to confirm momentum is shifting. Immediate support sits near $1.10; a daily close below that level could expose $1.00 and $0.90. Buyers need to reclaim $1.16 and then $1.21 before challenging the Supertrend barrier.
Market analyst EGRAG Crypto points to a falling wedge and multiple Fibonacci tools converging on a potential macro decision zone. He pegs the main bullish trigger between $1.66 and $2.00. “No confirmation = no celebration,” EGRAG Crypto said. Higher targets at $8.48, $13.70, $18.06 and $27.68 depend on unconfirmed breakouts and remain chart projections rather than measured forecasts. XRP would need to gain over 49% just to reach $1.66.
Realized Losses Pile Pressure on Holders
Glassnode data shows the 90-day average of XRP’s realized profit-to-loss ratio dropped to 0.38. That means holders booked only 38 cents in profit for every dollar of losses realized. A ratio below 1 indicates loss-taking outweighs profitable selling. Glassnode describes the reading as intense capitulation, as participants moving coins on-chain accept losses at a much higher rate. Simultaneously, XRP Ledger activity has weakened: the 90-day average of total transaction fees fell from roughly 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to about 500 XRP, a decline of over 91%. Lower fees reduce user costs but also point to diminished transaction demand. The drop makes it harder to argue that the current price weakness coincides with organic network expansion. As crypto.news reported earlier, XRP entered a stop-loss phase after its spent output profit ratio dipped below 1, with coins changing hands at an average loss while the chart extended lower highs.
Binance XRP Reserves Slide to Four-Month Low
CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain reports that Binance’s XRP reserves have fallen to approximately 2.69 billion tokens, the lowest level in four months. Balances had previously stayed above 2.8 billion XRP. Falling exchange reserves can reduce tokens available for immediate sale, possibly signaling holders are moving XRP to private wallets or custody. However, the signal does not guarantee accumulation or a rebound. Exchange balances can also shift due to internal wallet management, inter-platform transfers, or custody movements. crypto.news previously noted that exchange reserves dropped sharply during earlier phases of XRP’s decline without producing an immediate supply squeeze; price continued to weaken while balances moved off Binance, underscoring that demand ultimately determines whether lower exchange supply supports a rally. The reserve decline offers a counterweight to bearish indicators but not a confirmed reversal signal.
Reclaiming $1.26 Remains the Key
The short-term outlook depends on whether buyers can defend $1.10. A bounce above $1.16 would restore the top of the latest daily range, while $1.21 is the next recovery level. The larger test sits at $1.2638 and the $1.26–$1.33 resistance band. A sustained close above that zone would weaken the Supertrend’s bearish signal and bring $1.40 and $1.66 into focus. Failure to hold $1.10 would keep $1.00 and $0.90 in play. EGRAG Crypto also identifies $0.60 as deeper macro support if the wedge breaks downward, though no move to that level has been confirmed. Oversold RSI readings could support a relief bounce, and falling Binance reserves may limit immediate sell-side supply. However, realized losses, lower network fees, and a bearish Supertrend all indicate that XRP has not yet confirmed a durable bottom. For now, $1.10 is the main defense, while $1.26 is the first level needed to change the technical picture. Wider bullish targets remain inactive unless XRP breaks the wedge and reclaims higher resistance.