Wave Structure Analysis: Third Wave Decline Could Be the Final Major Drop
Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital, recently shared his technical analysis of Bitcoin's ongoing decline on social media. He explicitly states that the current price action belongs to the third wave of decline from the 1011 high. According to wave theory and cyclical patterns, the third wave is often the most destructive leg of an corrective phase, yet it also frequently marks the final bottom. Yi believes this is likely the last major correction of the current cycle.
Key Influencing Factors and Bottom Projection: Focus on US Equities, MicroStrategy, and the Fed
Yi identifies several key variables affecting Bitcoin's downside: the overall performance of US stock markets and the stock price of MicroStrategy (Strategy), which holds a massive Bitcoin reserve. Market participants should closely monitor the Federal Reserve's reaction to upcoming CPI data. If inflation proves sticky and triggers renewed rate hike expectations, US equities could face a sustained pullback, dragging crypto markets lower. Historically, late bear markets are associated with black swan events or blow-ups (e.g., institutional collapses, sudden regulatory tightening). No such event has occurred yet, so vigilance is warranted.
For concrete price targets, Yi uses Bitcoin's previous peak of $126,000 as a baseline. A 60% decline would bring the price to approximately $51,000; a 66% decline would result in around $43,000. This range forms his projected bottom zone.
Buying Window: July-August Likely the Cycle's Final Bottom Zone
Yi emphasizes that regardless of the exact bottom price, July-August is highly likely to be the final bottom zone of this cycle. He considers this window the most attractive buying opportunity for the next three years. This timing aligns with historical cyclical patterns, where Bitcoin often finds a low within a year after a halving event.