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quantum compu
2026-06-29 12:30:11

Quantum Threat to Bitcoin: Google's 2029 Prediction, Logical Qubits, and the Decades-Long Gap for Bad Actors

Quantum computing has advanced significantly in the past 18 months, but the gap to breaking Bitcoin remains vast. This article reviews the current state: logical qubit demonstrations, error correction progress, Google's PQC migration target of 2029, the actual resource requirements (1,200-1,450 logical qubits with tens of millions of Toffoli gates), cost estimates (low single-digit billions), key milestones (IBM roadmap, DARPA validation), and the historical DES analogy suggesting bad actors may be 30+ years behind top labs. Bottom line: Bitcoin is safe today but the ecosystem must accelerate post-quantum migration.

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Quantum Threat to Bitcoin: Google's 2029 Prediction, Logical Qubits, and the Decades-Long Gap for Bad Actors