UBS says wafer makers may need 40%+ price increases before adding new capacity
UBS said in a Sept. 18, 2026 global wafer industry report that tightening supply-demand conditions in 12-inch and 8-inch wafers are likely to persist over the next two years, with 12-inch utilization projected to rise from 84% in 2026 to 99% in 2028. The bank argued that the market may be treating wafer producers as beneficiaries of a cyclical rebound, but higher prices are also a prerequisite for capacity expansion after the downturn from 2023 to 2025 left manufacturers cautious. UBS estimated wafer prices could rise more than 20% annually in 2027 and 2028, similar to the 2017-2018 upcycle. Still, industry feedback cited in the report suggests customers may need to accept price increases of 40% to 50% or more before suppliers seriously consider building capacity for 2028 and beyond. Without expansion, UBS said utilization could reach 103.7% in 2029, with shortages beginning to show that year. The report also said Chinese wafer makers are expanding, but their effect on global supply-demand conditions in 2027 and 2028 should be limited, especially in the high-end segment. UBS maintained Buy ratings on Shin-Etsu Chemical, GlobalWafers and Siltronic, while keeping SUMCO at Neutral.
