Dollar-Funded Emerging-Market Carry Trades Extend Winning Streak to Seven Quarters
Dollar-funded carry trades in emerging markets have now posted positive returns for seven straight quarters, according to Bloomberg, marking the longest such winning run since 2008. By Bloomberg’s basket of eight emerging-market currencies, the trade has returned about 22% since the end of 2024, far ahead of the 5.9% return for U.S. Treasuries over the same period, as well as 14% for emerging-market sovereign dollar bonds and 10% for emerging-market corporate debt. Investors have been drawn by the gap between low-cost funding currencies such as the U.S. dollar, yen and euro and high-yielding currencies including the Turkish lira, where interest returns can top 40%. The report said returns have been helped not only by rate differentials but also by foreign-exchange moves. Over the past 12 months, dollar-funded carry trades returned 48% in the Colombian peso, 23% in the Turkish lira, 21% in the Brazilian real, 19% in the Mexican peso and 18% in the South African rand. Market participants are now focused on three main issues: when the Federal Reserve may move, whether the trade is becoming crowded, and how long high rates in parts of Latin America and Eastern Europe can last.








