USD/JPY Breaks Below 155 on a Third Test, Putting the Yen Carry Trade Thesis Under Pressure
USD/JPY fell through 155 on Sept. 7 after previously holding the area twice following intervention-linked defenses, then traded below 154.50 early on Sept. 8. In the source article by Stephen Innes, the move matters less as a one-day fluctuation and more because repeated defenses had turned 155 into a crowded line in the market, with positions, conviction, and stop-loss orders built around the assumption that the floor would hold again. Once that structure gave way, the unwind itself became part of the move. The article points to several forces lining up behind the yen. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has taken a firmer tone on Japan’s fiscal and monetary stance, saying Japan should move away from reflation and that the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan are likely to take steps that ultimately strengthen the yen. At the same time, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda kept Sept. 17-18 in play for rate discussions, while board member Hajime Takata argued for flexibility on hikes. Speculation around possible portfolio changes at Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, which manages about JPY 300 trillion, has also returned. On the dollar side, a solid August U.S. payrolls report failed to generate much follow-through, leaving CPI as the key near-term test for the Federal Reserve.








