Bitcoin fell below $60,000 on June 26. Greeks.live macro researcher Adam noted on X that the Gex chart shows $60K as the largest open interest, while $58K and $59K are also accumulating. Market risks are piling up, but institutions and whales have not continued to bet on further downside; they are waiting for tomorrow's quarterly settlement before acting.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reports that Strategy's preferred stock MSTR has dropped 78% from its peak, while Bitcoin is down 51%. BTC has fallen below Strategy's average cost basis of $75,651 for its 847,363 BTC holdings (total cost $64.1B), the first time since the 2022 bear market. The company's buying strategy has turned defensive: weekly BTC purchases cut by two-thirds, less than 11% of a recent $335.5M stock issuance went to BTC (rest to USD reserves), and a first net sale of 32 BTC in May to pay STRC dividends. The main risk is BTC staying below the treasury cost line, which could compress MSTR premium and block ATM issuance channels. However, debt is mostly convertible bonds with no margin call risk; the baseline scenario is marginal buyer attrition, not cascading liquidation. The true tipping point is if the company shifts from selling stock to systematically selling BTC to pay dividends and interest.
