Variational
19 days agoNews Editor

Variational launches rewards campaign for active on-chain perpetual traders

Variational, a derivatives protocol on Arbitrum, said it will offer more than $1 million and 150,000 platform points to attract the 10,000 most active on-chain perpetual futures traders, excluding market makers. Eligible traders can receive as many as 3,000 Variational points, while referrers can earn rewards of up to $15,000. The protocol said more than 750 new users have already registered through the campaign. The announcement also restated the tokenomics for VAR, which the team disclosed on Sept. 24. Under that structure, 32% of the token supply is allocated to a genesis airdrop distributed in proportion to points and fully unlocked at the token generation event, or TGE. Another 18% is reserved for the ecosystem and will be allocated by the foundation, while 50% is assigned to the team and investors, subject to a 12-month lockup after TGE followed by at least three years of linear vesting. Variational said it plans to hold its TGE in Q4. Until then, the team will continue distributing 150,000 points each week. Users need at least 1 point to claim the airdrop, unclaimed allocations will be burned, and 100% of revenue will be used to buy back and burn VAR.

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Variational launches rewards campaign for active on-chain perpetual traders
Bitcoin
21 days agoNews Editor

Bitcoin logs more 3-sigma days than 2018 even as volatility drops, raising questions for VaR models

Bitcoin has posted 10 three-sigma trading days in 2026, already exceeding the eight recorded during the whole of 2018, according to CoinDesk’s calculations. The count stands out because the asset’s annualized volatility has fallen sharply, from about 84% in 2018 to roughly 46% this year, while the average size of those three-sigma moves has also narrowed to around 7% from about 10% eight years ago. The pattern suggests that day-to-day trading may look calmer, but outsized repricing events are still showing up with unusual frequency. That matters for investors who size positions with volatility-based risk tools such as value-at-risk, or VaR. If recent realized volatility keeps falling across 30-day, 90-day and 180-day windows, some models may signal lower risk and support larger allocations, even though repeated tail events remain part of bitcoin’s trading profile. Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers said standard VaR does not fully capture tail risk and pointed to Expected Shortfall as a more suitable measure for extreme losses. Market participants cited macro shocks and crowded derivatives positioning as key drivers. Paradigm’s Nicolas Quatravaux said long quiet stretches can still be broken by abrupt repricing tied to macro headlines, leverage and positioning. Two Prime CEO Alexander S. Blume said covered call overwriting has become a crowded trade and can amplify upside squeezes. Even so, participants said the market now absorbs these shocks better than in prior years, with Paradigm facilitating a record $6.7 billion in options volume on Sept. 21, the date of bitcoin’s latest three-sigma jump.

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Bitcoin logs more 3-sigma days than 2018 even as volatility drops, raising questions for VaR models
Bitcoin
21 days agoNews Editor

CoinDesk says Bitcoin has logged 10 three-sigma trading days this year, topping 2018

CoinDesk analysis shows Bitcoin has recorded 10 trading days this year in which the one-day move reached three standard deviations of recent volatility, exceeding the eight seen in all of 2018. The calculation uses realized daily return volatility over the previous 30 days and includes both upside and downside moves. At the same time, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility this year is about 46%, below 84% in 2018, while the average absolute move on those outsized days has fallen from roughly 10% to about 7%. Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers said standard value-at-risk, or VaR, metrics do not fully capture tail risk, warning that increasing allocations solely because recent volatility has declined could amplify the impact of sudden swings on a portfolio.

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CoinDesk says Bitcoin has logged 10 three-sigma trading days this year, topping 2018
Variational
22 days agoNews Editor

Variational’s second-largest trader says he will not sell VAR at TGE

Odaily reported that an0n2498.hl, described as the whale ranked second by total trading volume on Variational, said in a post on X that he has sold almost none of his HYPE and does not plan to sell any more going forward. He also said he will not sell any VAR during its token generation event, or TGE. Instead, he plans to buy a large amount of VAR in the spot market and open a long-term long position in VAR futures. In the same statement, he said his bullish view on VAR was hard to put into words. Odaily also noted that an0n2498.hl previously received a HYPE airdrop worth $15 million from Hyperliquid.

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Variational’s second-largest trader says he will not sell VAR at TGE
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