Opta’s supercomputer backs Supporters’ Shield winners Nashville SC to win the 2026 MLS Cup, setting out a picture of the playoff field and the leading contenders’ prospects.
Playoff field and wild card matchups
After the regular season, 18 teams remain in contention for the 2026 MLS Cup. The top nine clubs in the Eastern and Western Conferences secured places in the MLS playoffs.
There will be two elimination wild card matches before the official MLS playoff bracket is set for the 2026 MLS Cup.
Nashville’s historic regular season and title chances
Nashville SC put together what is described as the best regular season in league history, amassing 77 points and suffering three defeats in 34 games. B. J. Callaghan manages Nashville SC.
Opta’s supercomputer backs Supporters’ Shield winners Nashville SC to win the 2026 MLS Cup and gives them a 22.16% chance of winning their first MLS Cup in December.
Nashville SC kick off their postseason run against the Eastern Conference wild card winners, either Orlando City or FC Cincinnati.
Canadian outfit and FC Dallas as major threats
Thomas Müller and Co. have a 21% chance of avenging last season’s runners-up finish. The Canadian outfit comfortably finished the regular season atop the Western Conference standings.
The Canadian outfit will play Round One of the playoffs against the Western Conference wild card winners, either Seattle Sounders or Real Salt Lake. Nashville SC, Inter Miami, New England Revolution and Philadelphia Union are all on the other side of the playoff bracket.
SI identifies FC Dallas as the biggest threat to the Canadian outfit’s place in the MLS Cup final, and the Opta supercomputer gives FC Dallas a 10.42% chance of winning the MLS Cup in December. According to the same supercomputer, FC Dallas are described as the only other contenders besides Nashville SC and the Canadian outfit with double-digit odds of winning the MLS Cup in December.
Petar Musa finished second in the MLS Golden Boot standings with 22 goals in 30 league appearances.
The Opta supercomputer rates FC Dallas higher than Inter Miami in their chances of winning the MLS Cup, despite the Herons finishing the regular season with two more points from the harder division.
Inter Miami and Messi’s title defence
Inter Miami are the defending champions. Before the 2026 MLS season kicked off, Inter Miami were favorites to retain their crown.
Lionel Messi has won the Ballon d’Or eight times and has already picked up his second MLS Golden Boot. He is described as a frontrunner to win a record-third MLS MVP award.
The Opta supercomputer gives Inter Miami, managed by Kily González, an 8.24% chance of successfully defending their MLS Cup title.
The article states that only three teams in MLS history have won back-to-back MLS Cups, with LA Galaxy’s 2011 and 2012 triumphs cited as the last time a team defended its MLS crown.
At age 39, Lionel Messi is still the ultimate equalizer and will be back in action in Round One against the Columbus Crew.
St. Louis CITY’s rise and silverware
The Opta supercomputer gives St. Louis CITY a 6.12% chance of winning the MLS Cup, rounding out the supercomputer’s top five.
St. Louis CITY kick off their postseason berth against LAFC. St. Louis already lifted silverware this season, besting the Crew in a penalty shootout to claim the U.S. Open Cup.
St. Louis CITY only officially joined Major League Soccer in 2023.
Background of writer Amanda Langell
Amanda Langell is identified as a writer and editor for SI FC and was born and raised in New York City. The article states that Amanda Langell’s first loves were the Yankees, the Rangers and Broadway before Real Madrid became her main football passion.
Had it not been for her brother’s obsession with Cristiano Ronaldo, Amanda Langell would have never lived through so many magical Champions League nights.
The article states that when Amanda Langell is not consumed by Spanish and European soccer, she spends time traveling, reading or attending concerts where she loses her voice.
