Will bitcoin go back up? As of July 31, 2026, several major firms still expect a recovery, but they disagree sharply on how far bitcoin can rise and how quickly that move could happen.
The backdrop matters. Bitcoin is trading near $64,000, down nearly half from its roughly $126,000 all-time high in October 2025. After a drawdown that deep, the real question is not just whether the asset can bounce, but whether any rebound can hold and turn into a broader move higher.
Why forecasts are so far apart
The split comes from different assumptions, not from one side understanding bitcoin and the other missing the story. Some forecasters focus on ETF flows, some rely on volatility models tied to gold, and others think price may stay trapped in a broad range unless a new catalyst appears.
That is why anyone asking whether bitcoin will recover should look past a single headline target. A price call only makes sense when the conditions behind it are clear.
What each institution is actually saying
Standard Chartered: positive, but more restrained
In a report published in February 2026, Standard Chartered set a $100,000 target for bitcoin by the end of 2026. Its view is still constructive, though clearly less aggressive than before.
The bank had already cut its target twice, moving from $300,000 to $150,000 and then to $100,000, while still keeping a long-term $500,000 call for 2030. Its main variable is ETF fund flows, which means the recovery case depends heavily on whether institutional demand improves again.
JPMorgan: bullish on a higher 2026 range
JPMorgan said in February 2026 that bitcoin could reach $150,000-$170,000 in 2026. The bank ties that view to a volatility model comparing bitcoin with gold.
It also argued that support exists near $94,000. Since that level sits well above the current market price, JPMorgan is treating the recent drop more like a severe correction than a breakdown in the longer trend.
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: the most aggressive upside case
Fundstrat's Tom Lee gave a $250,000 bitcoin target for 2026 in January 2026, making it the most bullish call in this list. His argument is that the old four-year halving cycle has been altered by ETFs and long-duration institutional buying.
If that framework is right, then old cycle ceilings may matter less than many traders assume. Still, this kind of forecast asks a lot from sustained inflows, so any slowdown in demand would weaken the path to that target.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz: range-bound, not broken
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in July 2026 that bitcoin may trade in a $60,000-$80,000 range through the full year. That is not an outright bearish view, but it is cautious about a quick return to six figures.
His reason is simple: without a strong catalyst, he does not see bitcoin getting back to $100,000. For readers asking whether bitcoin will go up again, this is a useful middle ground. Price can stabilize and recover from lows without rushing straight to a fresh record.
NYDIG: a bearish stress scenario
NYDIG outlined a bearish stress case in 2026 rather than a base forecast. It said bitcoin could fall to $38,000-$39,000 around October 2026 if ETF outflows continue and macro liquidity tightens.
That distinction matters. NYDIG is not saying this outcome is the default path, but it is showing what could happen if negative conditions stack up at the same time. Any honest bitcoin price prediction needs to leave room for that downside path.
What likely decides the next move
Across these public forecasts, three variables keep coming up. The first is whether ETF flows turn positive again. The second is whether macro liquidity remains tight or starts to ease. The third is whether the market gets a strong catalyst that can pull price out of a wide trading band.
If inflows improve and risk appetite returns, the bullish calls become easier to defend. If capital stays cautious, the range-bound view looks more realistic. If outflows continue while liquidity conditions worsen, the bearish stress case becomes harder to dismiss.
So, will bitcoin go back up? A fair answer is yes, recovery remains a live scenario in several institutional forecasts, but there is no shared view on the timing or the ceiling.
FAQ
Does the current drawdown mean the bull trend is over?
Not necessarily. Several public forecasts for 2026 still point to prices above the current level, while others expect bitcoin to remain stuck in a broad range.
That tells you the market has not reached one clean verdict. The next stage depends more on flows and macro conditions than on the drawdown alone.
Can bitcoin still recover from here?
Yes, but the recovery case is conditional. Most bullish forecasts rely on stronger ETF demand, ongoing institutional buying, or an improvement in broader risk appetite.
If those inputs fail to show up, bitcoin may still bounce without starting a full trend reversal. A rebound and a new all-time high are not the same thing.
How high could bitcoin go in 2026?
Among the public forecasts covered here, the highest target comes from Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who said in January 2026 that bitcoin could reach $250,000 in 2026. That is one firm view, not a market-wide expectation.
Other forecasts for the same year are much more conservative, and one scenario is openly bearish. The useful part is not the top number by itself, but the assumptions behind it.
Why are the targets so different?
Because the models are different. Some institutions put more weight on ETF flows, some compare bitcoin's volatility with gold, and some focus on whether a strong catalyst exists at all.
Different starting points produce very different outcomes. For investors, the better approach is to test the assumptions rather than chase the highest target.
How to use these forecasts without overreading them
Treat them as scenario maps, not promises. Watch ETF flow direction, shifts in risk appetite, and whether the catalysts named by these firms are actually showing up before making portfolio changes or adding more exposure.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Always do your own research.